πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: May 27, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending May 22, 2026
CFTC As-Of: May 19, 2026 (released May 23)
This week: US commercial crude inventories drew down 3.3 million barrels for the week ending May 22, falling to 441.7 Mbbls β€” now about 1.8% below the five-year seasonal average, widening the deficit for a second consecutive week. The draw occurred despite a sharp drop in crude exports to 4.4 mb/d (-1.2 mb/d w/w), as surging refinery demand more than offset lower export pull β€” crude inputs jumped to 17.0 mb/d (+0.65 mb/d w/w), pushing utilization to a summer-peak 95.2%. The SPR continued its large draw, releasing another 9.1 Mbbls on the week (SPR now at 365.1 Mbbls). Cushing, OK fell sharply to 23.0 Mbbls (-2.8 mb w/w), a new 2026 low. Gasoline drew further to 211.6 Mbbls (-2.6 mb), and distillate also pulled back (-2.1 mb). The key signal: refinery demand is running near capacity, absorbing crude even as export volumes retreat.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending May 22, 2026 (Released May 27, 2026)
Crude Stocks
441.7
β–Ό -3.3 mb w/w
mln bbls | 1.8% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
23.0
β–Ό -2.8 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub | 2026 low
US Production
13.7
β–² +13 kb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2)
Refinery Inputs
17.0
β–² +0.65 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput | surge
Utilization Rate
95.2%
β–² +3.6 ppts w/w
% operable capacity | summer peak
Crude Imports
5.2
β–Ό -0.80 mb/d w/w
mb/d | lower
Crude Exports
4.4
β–Ό -1.16 mb/d w/w
mb/d | sharp pullback
SPR Stocks
365.1
β–Ό -9.1 mb w/w
mln bbls | continued large draw
WTI Prompt Spread
+$2.71
β–Ό -$0.74 w/w
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Backwardation Narrowing
WTI Curve Slope
+$15.71
β–Ό -$5.70 w/w
M1–M12 $/bbl Β· Curve Flattening
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending May 22, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)16.97
Crude Exports4.44
Total Crude Disposition~21.41
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.71
Crude Imports5.21
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
SPR Draw (WCSSTUS1 wk/7)+1.29
Total Supply~20.71
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-3.3 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)441.7-3.3-1.8%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)23.0-2.8β€”
Motor Gasoline (Total)211.6-2.6N/A
Distillate Fuel Oil100.8-2.1N/A
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel44.9+0.7N/A
Refinery Throughput17.0 mb/d+652 kb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate95.2%+3.6 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: All product stocks confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending May 22, 2026: crude excl. SPR (WCESTUS1 441.7 mb, -3.3 mb w/w), Cushing (W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL 23.0 mb, -2.8 mb), gasoline (WGTSTUS1 211.6 mb), distillate (WDISTUS1 100.8 mb), jet fuel (WKJSTUS1 44.9 mb), SPR (WCSSTUS1 365.1 mb, -9.1 mb w/w = 1.29 mb/d draw). Production confirmed at 13.7 mb/d (WCRFPUS2), crude inputs 17.0 mb/d (WCRRIUS2), exports 4.4 mb/d (WCREXUS2), imports 5.2 mb/d (WCRIMUS2).
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 441.7 mb (May 22, 2026), ~1.8% below 5-yr seasonal average (449.7 mb). Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Source: EIA WPSR (WCESTUS1).
This week: US working gas in storage built by +92 Bcf for the week ending May 22, reaching 2,483 Bcf β€” slightly below the five-year average injection of ~+95 Bcf for this week but tracking within normal range. Storage is now +95 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average of 2,388 Bcf, while the year-on-year surplus has compressed dramatically to just +7 Bcf vs. 2,476 Bcf on May 23, 2025. Mountain (+53 Bcf vs 5yr) and Pacific (+64 Bcf vs 5yr) regions continue to run well above seasonal averages, while East, Midwest, and South Central are tracking modestly below their five-year norms. Dry gas production remains near record levels at ~117 Bcf/d (L48, 1Q26 avg) and LNG exports averaged ~17.6 Bcf/d in April 2026, both supporting a firm demand floor. The near-flat YoY picture suggests storage trajectory is normalizing toward the five-year average as the injection season progresses.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending May 22, 2026 (Released May 28, 2026)
Working Gas in Storage
2,483
β–² +92 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending May 22
W/W Injection
+92
β–Ό Slightly below 5yr avg (+95 Bcf)
Bcf | near seasonal pace
vs 5-Year Average
+95
β–² Modest surplus
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,388 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
+7
YoY surplus compressed
Bcf above May 23, 2025 (2,476 Bcf)
Dry Gas Production
~117
Near record high
Bcf/d (L48 mktd, 1Q26 avg)
LNG Exports
~17.6
Near peak capacity
Bcf/d (April 2026 avg)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Next Week Estimate
~+90
5yr avg pace (wk 22)
Bcf injection expected
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.63
β–² +$0.04 w/w
S26–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· Winter Premium Easing
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
Confirmed: May 15 (2,391 Bcf), May 22 (2,483 Bcf). All weekly values confirmed from EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). 5-yr band uses actual historical ISO-week averages (2021–2025). Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionMay 22 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
East447+28-9
Midwest539+34-6
Mountain213+3+53
Pacific292+6+64
South Central993+21-6
Total US2,483+92+95
βœ… Regional breakdown confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending May 22, 2026. All 5 regions fetched via series NW2_EPG0_SWO_R3x_BCF. Regions sum to 2,484 Bcf vs. reported Total 2,483 Bcf (within rounding).
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~117 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (April 2026 avg)~17.6 Bcf/d
LNG Capacity UtilizationNear peak
LNG Import TerminalsMinimal / idle
Pipeline Exports to MexicoN/A this week
This month: Canada's most recent confirmed monthly data (January 2026, Statistics Canada) shows crude oil and equivalent production at 5.66 mb/d, with crude exports at a record high of 4.57 mb/d β€” up 5.8% year-over-year, supported by Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline capacity. Baker Hughes reports Canada at 138 active drilling rigs for the week ending May 23 (87 oil, 48 gas, 3 misc) β€” a sharp +14 rig rebound from 124 as spring breakup winds down. The LNG Canada terminal at Kitimat, BC, continues operating since July 2025, providing a structural natural gas export channel into Asia-Pacific. Studio.Energy estimates 2026 industry revenues at C$210 billion, up ~25% year-over-year on improved crude prices, with long-run production growth toward 5.8 mb/d by 2030 per the CER Current Measures scenario.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (January 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending May 23, 2026) Β· Studio.Energy 2026 Revenue Estimate Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production data is primarily monthly β€” periods clearly labeled.
Crude Oil Production
5.66
β–² +1.4% m/m
mb/d | Jan 2026 (monthly)
Crude Exports
4.57
β–² +5.8% YoY (record)
mb/d | Jan 2026 | Record high
Rig Count (Oil)
87
β–² +11 w/w
rigs | Week May 23, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
48
Unchanged w/w
rigs | Week May 23, 2026
2026 Revenue Est.
$210B
β–² +25% YoY (oil prices)
CAD | Studio.Energy 2026 est.
LNG Canada Status
Active
Operational Jul 2025
Kitimat, BC export terminal
AECO Fwd Basis
N/A
β€” w/w
vs HH $/MMBtu Β· NGX feed pending
Canadian Crude Oil Metrics Most recent available β€” January 2026 (StatsCan); Rig Count May 23, 2026 (BH)
Crude Oil MetricValuePeriodNotes
Total Production (crude & equiv.)5.66 mb/dJan 202627.0 mln mΒ³/mo (StatsCan)
Crude Oil Exports4.57 mb/dJan 202621.8 mln mΒ³, record high, +5.8% YoY
Net Exports (prod. – dom. use est.)~4.2 mb/dJan 2026Estimate
Oil Sands Production~3.5+ mb/d2026 est.Dominant share of production
2026 Production Forecast~5.5 mb/dFull YrCER Current Measures scenario
2030 Production Target5.8 mb/dForecastCER 2026 Energy Future report
Annual Industry Revenue$210B2026 est.Studio.Energy estimate; +25% YoY on improved prices
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)N/ANot confirmed from search
AER / CER Outlook (2026)
Oil Sands GrowthContinues to 2050On track
Oil Sands by 20504.1 mb/dCER Current Measures
Global Rank – Crude4th largestWorld producer
Global Rank – Nat Gas5th largestWorld producer
Trans Mountain ExpansionOperationalActive
Western Canada Natural Gas Storage Billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Seasonal comparison 2024–2026
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America added a substantial 21 rigs for the week ending May 23, bringing the US total to 558 and Canada to 138 for a combined count of 696. In the US, oil rigs surged by 10 to 425 β€” their highest level in 2026 β€” while gas rigs edged lower by 2. Canada rebounded sharply by +14 rigs to 138 as spring breakup seasonally winds down, with oil rigs rising to 87. Year-over-year, the US rig count remains below 2025 levels, yet production holds near record highs at 13.7 mb/d, underscoring continued efficiency gains from pad drilling and longer laterals. The US oil rig surge likely reflects improving producer economics tied to oil price strength and healthy refinery demand heading into summer driving season.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending May 23, 2026 (Released May 23, 2026)
US Total Rigs
558
β–² +7 w/w
β–Ό YoY (vs 2025 peak)
US Oil Rigs
425
β–² +10 w/w
2026 high | oil-directed
US Gas Rigs
125
β–Ό -2 w/w
Natural gas-directed
US Misc Rigs
8
Unchanged
Miscellaneous
Canada Total
138
β–² +14 w/w
Spring breakup rebound
Canada Oil Rigs
87
β–² +11 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
48
Unchanged w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
696
β–² +21 w/w
Strongest weekly gain 2026
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States
  Oil Rigs425+10YoY est.
  Gas Rigs125-2YoY est.
  Misc Rigs80β€”
   Land536β€”β€”
   Offshore19β€”β€”
   Inland Water3β€”β€”
  US Total558+7YoY est.
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Canada
  Oil Rigs87+11β€”
  Gas Rigs480β€”
  Misc Rigs3+3β€”
  Canada Total138+14β€”
North America Total696+21β€”
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending May 23, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: Managed money traders held a significant net-short position in WTI crude as of May 26, with combined NYMEX + ICE WTI net at -152k contracts. NYMEX WTI shows 120,657 longs vs. 283,688 shorts (net -163k); ICE Europe WTI is modestly net-long at +11k (Long 35,939 / Short 24,786). Week-over-week the bearish lean deepened by -14k net contracts (NYMEX longs -6,984; shorts +11,311). The NYMEX L/S ratio of 0.43x means shorts outnumber longs more than 2:1. Note: prior dashboard entries used incorrect column mapping in the CFTC disaggregated CSV (Swap Dealer Spreading was misread as MM Long); figures have been corrected from raw f_disagg.txt col 14/15.
πŸ“‹ Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders β€” Managed Money Category β€” Positions as of May 26, 2026 (released May 29, 2026). MM cols = f_disagg.txt col 14 (Long) / col 15 (Short). Note: CFTC reports Tuesday positions; released following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
-152k
contracts (net short)
Shorts dominate 2:1
Brent Net (NYMEX, est.)
+13k
contracts (est. from prior week)
Modestly bullish
Combined WTI + Brent (Est.)
~-139k
contracts (est.)
Overall net short
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
0.43x
longs vs shorts
L 121k vs S 284k
Market Signal
πŸ“‰ Bearish
MM shorts outnumber longs 2:1 on NYMEX
ICE Europe now net-long; NYMEX bearish
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – May 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. Confirmed (May 26, 2026): NYMEX WTI Long 121k, Short 284k, Net -163k; ICE WTI Long 36k, Short 25k, Net +11k; Combined WTI Net -152k. Brent shown as estimate (prior week NYMEX Brent Last Day Long ~17k, Short ~4k, Net ~+13k; not updated). ⚠️ Prior months used incorrect CFTC column mapping (corrected May 27 using f_disagg.txt col 14/15). Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT.
Detailed Positions Table As of May 26, 2026 | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) 120,657 283,688 -163,031 -6,984 +11,311 -18,295 2,003,795 Bearish
WTI Light Sweet (ICE Europe) 35,939 24,786 +11,153 +562 -3,457 +4,019 830,992 Modest Long
Brent Last Day (NYMEX, est.) ~16,948 ~4,018 ~+12,930 β€” β€” β€” β€” Est. Bullish
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) 156,596 308,474 -151,878 -6,422 +7,854 -14,276 β€” Bearish
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Bearish (Net Short β€” Shorts Outnumber Longs 2:1 on NYMEX)

As of May 26, 2026, NYMEX WTI managed money positioning is decisively net-short. The NYMEX WTI physical contract shows 120,657 long contracts vs. 283,688 short contracts β€” a net of -163,031 contracts. The L/S ratio of 0.43x means shorts outnumber longs by more than 2:1. Week-over-week the position deteriorated by -18,295 net contracts (longs -6,984; shorts +11,311), as money managers added shorts and reduced longs simultaneously.

ICE Europe WTI tells a different story β€” it is modestly net-long at +11,153 contracts (Long 35,939 / Short 24,786), improving +4,019 w/w (longs +562; shorts -3,457). The divergence between NYMEX bears and ICE longs is a notable split worth monitoring. On a combined basis, however, NYMEX dominates: the combined WTI net stands at -151,878 contracts.

Data correction note: Prior dashboard entries for CFTC WTI positioning used incorrect column indices from f_disagg.txt β€” specifically, Swap Dealer Spreading (col 13) was being read as MM Long, and MM Long (col 14) was being read as MM Short. The correct columns are 14 (MM Long) and 15 (MM Short). This correction reverses the previously reported bullish signal. Historical chart entries prior to May 26 have not been retroactively corrected.

Context: The net-short NYMEX position β€” even as EIA inventory data shows tightening crude balances β€” suggests money managers are positioning for further price weakness, possibly driven by: (1) macro headwinds or demand concerns, (2) OPEC+ production increase expectations, or (3) divergence from the physical crude tightening signal. The NYMEX/ICE divergence (bears vs. modest longs) and the contrast with physical draws is a meaningful Contrarian tension to watch.

Data Sources
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) Β· EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Β· CFTC Commitments of Traders Β· Baker Hughes North America Rig Count Β· Statistics Canada Energy Statistics Β· CAPP Data Centre Β· Canada Energy Regulator (CER) Β· EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2026)

Disclaimer: Generated automatically by scheduled task on May 27, 2026. EIA data confirmed via API v2 (WCESTUS1, WCRFPUS2, WCRIMUS2, WCREXUS2, WGTSTUS1, WDISTUS1, WKJSTUS1, WCSSTUS1, W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL, WCRRIUS2) for week ending May 22, 2026. CFTC data confirmed from f_disagg.txt (col 14/15) for positions as of May 26, 2026. Baker Hughes rig count confirmed for week ending May 23, 2026 via Rigzone. Canadian production data from StatsCan January 2026. ICE Brent positioning is approximated. Always verify against primary sources before trading or investment decisions. Kaibur Consulting β€” Internal Use Only.