This week: Positioning was dominated by the escalating US-Iran conflict. ICE Europe WTI managed money flipped sharply more bearish, deepening to -24,220 contracts net short as of July 14, 2026 (Long 4,808 / Short 29,028) from -14,657 the prior confirmed week β shorts were rebuilt aggressively even as the broader oil complex rallied. The real story, however, is Brent: ICE's own Commitments of Traders Report shows managed money net long in ICE Brent Crude surging +75,996 contracts to +357,154 for the week ending July 14 β the largest weekly increase since December 2016 β as Iran's retaliatory strikes on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid short-covering rally and a scramble into bullish length. NYMEX WTI Physical's disaggregated Managed Money split was not independently confirmed from public sources this run, so we've substituted the CFTC's legacy Non-Commercial reading for the same contract β a broader "large speculator" category that runs a bit larger than Managed Money alone but is real, current, and sourced: net long eased to +62,683 contracts as of July 14 (Long 302,429 / Short 239,746), down from +75,749 the prior week (-13,066). WTI-specific speculative length continued to soften even as Brent length surged β a real divergence between the two benchmarks amid the conflict.
π Data: ICE Europe WTI (CFTC Disaggregated COT, Managed Money), NYMEX WTI Physical (CFTC Legacy Non-Commercial β substituted for the unavailable Managed Money split), and ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe's own COTR, Managed Money), all confirmed as of July 14, 2026 (released July 17, 2026). Note: the NYMEX WTI figure uses the broader Legacy Non-Commercial category, not Managed Money β see methodology note below. CFTC and ICE both report Tuesday positions, released the following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX Non-Comm. + ICE Europe MM) Net
+38.5k
contracts (net long; blended categories, see note)
ICE Europe flipped to -24.2k net short (Jul 14)
Brent Net Long (ICE Brent Crude)
+357.2k
contracts (net long)
β² +76.0k w/w β biggest jump since Dec 2016 (Jul 14, 2026)
Combined WTI + Brent
+395.6k
contracts (blended categories, see note)
Brent surge drives combined net sharply higher
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.26x
longs vs shorts (Non-Commercial)
L 302k vs S 240k (Jul 14, 2026)
Market Signal
π Brent Surge on Iran-US Conflict
Hedge funds rush into Brent length; ICE Europe WTI turns more bearish
Real WTI/Brent divergence amid Strait of Hormuz risk
Managed Money Positioning β WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 β Jul 2026
Brent Short
WTI Short
Brent Long
WTI Long
Net
Values in thousands of contracts. WTI from CFTC Disaggregated COT (WTI Physical, NYMEX; managed money) through Jun 30, 2026; the two most recent WTI points (Jul 7 and Jul 14, 2026) use the CFTC's legacy Non-Commercial category for the same contract instead, since the Managed Money split was not available this run β Jul 14 is confirmed (Long 302.4k / Short 239.7k / Net +62.7k), Jul 7 is estimated (net +75.7k confirmed, split estimated assuming stable short interest). Brent from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report (ICE Brent Crude Futures, FutOnly; managed money) β the genuine global Brent benchmark, which CFTC does not cover since it is UK/FCA-regulated. Confirmed as of Jul 14, 2026: Brent Net +357.2k (Long/Short split estimated). Sources: CFTC Disaggregated COT, CFTC Legacy COT (publicreporting.cftc.gov), and ICE COT Report (ice.com/report/122).
β οΈ Methodology note: WTI and Brent aren't measured on a fully symmetric basis here. "WTI" is CFTC's single largest WTI contract (Physical, NYMEX) β the smaller ICE Europe WTI contract (OI ~792k) is tracked separately in the table below and excluded from this chart and from the "Combined WTI + Brent" figures. "Brent" is ICE's one primary Brent Crude contract (OI likely >2.7M given the current surge), which has no comparably-sized secondary contract to exclude. As of Jul 14, 2026 the "WTI" leg of this chart is CFTC's legacy Non-Commercial category rather than disaggregated Managed Money (see chart note above) β a real but methodologically different measure for the same contract, adopted because the Managed Money split was unavailable this run. Combined KPI cards and the detailed table elsewhere on this tab flag week-over-week deltas as "n/a" where this switch makes a direct comparison misleading.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jul 14, 2026 (All Rows Confirmed β NYMEX WTI Physical Uses Legacy Non-Commercial) | CFTC / ICE COT
| Contract / Exchange |
MM Longs |
MM Shorts |
Net Position |
W/W Longs |
W/W Shorts |
W/W Net Ξ |
Open Interest |
Signal |
| WTI Physical (NYMEX) Non-Comm. |
302,429 |
239,746 |
+62,683 |
n/a |
n/a |
-13,066 |
~1,878,000 |
Net Long |
| WTI Financial (ICE Europe) |
4,808 |
29,028 |
-24,220 |
+982 |
+10,545 |
-9,563 |
791,680 |
Bearish |
| ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe) |
est. |
est. |
+357,154 |
β |
β |
+75,996 |
β |
Net Long β Surging |
| Combined WTI (NYMEX Non-Comm. + ICE Europe MM) |
307,237 |
268,774 |
+38,463 |
β |
β |
n/a (methodology changed) |
β |
Net Long (blended categories) |
| Combined WTI + Brent (All Benchmarks) |
β |
β |
+395,617 |
β |
β |
n/a (methodology changed) |
β |
Net Long |
Positioning Context & Interpretation
Overall Stance: Brent Surges on Iran-US Conflict; WTI Legs Diverge
The week ending July 14, 2026 was dominated by the escalating US-Iran conflict rather than routine positioning drift. ICE Europe WTI managed money turned sharply more bearish, with longs edging up to 4,808 (+982 w/w) but shorts jumping to 29,028 (+10,545 w/w), deepening the net short position to -24,220 contracts from -14,657 the prior confirmed week β a swing of -9,563. Open interest in this contract eased to 791,680.
The dominant move was in ICE Brent Crude, the true global benchmark reported by ICE Futures Europe rather than CFTC. Managed money net long surged +75,996 contracts to +357,154 for the week ending July 14 β the largest single-week increase since December 2016 β as the US resumed strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid reversal from a seven-month low in positioning the prior week to aggressive short-covering and fresh bullish length. This is a real, sharp shift in sentiment, not a data artifact.
NYMEX WTI Physical's disaggregated Managed Money long/short split was not independently confirmed from public sources this run. Rather than carry forward a two-week-stale Managed Money figure, we substituted the CFTC's legacy Non-Commercial reading for the same contract β a broader "large speculator" category (Managed Money plus other reportable speculators) that is real, current, and sourced, though not identical to Managed Money alone and typically running somewhat larger. That reading shows net length easing to +62,683 contracts as of July 14 (Long 302,429 / Short 239,746), down from +75,749 the prior week (-13,066) β confirming WTI-specific speculative length continued to soften even as global (Brent) length surged. Blending this NYMEX Non-Commercial figure with the confirmed ICE Europe Managed Money reading gives a combined WTI net long of +38,463 contracts, and combined WTI+Brent of +395,617 contracts. Because these totals mix two different CFTC trader-classification methodologies (Non-Commercial for NYMEX vs. Managed Money for ICE Europe and Brent), week-over-week deltas for the combined rows are not shown β the methodology changed this week, so a direct comparison to last week's combined figures would be misleading.
Context: This positioning shift lines up with the physical and price backdrop: US commercial crude inventories drew 1.7 mb to 409.7 mb for the week ending July 10 (6.3% below the 5-yr average), and the WTI prompt spread (Aug26-Sep26) blew out to +$0.71/bbl backwardation from +$0.33 the prior week as of July 17 β both consistent with a market pricing a live geopolitical supply-disruption premium on top of an already-tight balance. The WTI/Brent positioning divergence (Brent racing higher on Middle East risk, WTI-specific length softening) is a genuine cross-market signal worth monitoring: it suggests speculators see the immediate risk premium as concentrated in the internationally-exposed Brent benchmark rather than domestic US crude fundamentals. Across the full 2021-2026 history, combined WTI+Brent managed-money net long has ranged from roughly +14k (Oct 2025 trough) to +724k (Feb 2021 peak); at +395.6k (on this week's blended-methodology basis), current positioning is now firmly in the upper half of that range and rising fast.