πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: June 24, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending June 19, 2026
CFTC As-Of: June 16, 2026 (NYMEX WTI Physical + Brent Last Day + ICE Europe WTI confirmed)
This week: US commercial crude inventories drew a further 6.1 million barrels for the week ending June 19, falling to 412.1 Mbbls β€” now roughly 5.9% below the five-year seasonal average of 437.8 mb. Refinery utilization eased slightly to 96.1% (-0.6 ppts), with crude inputs edging lower to 17.1 mb/d. Crude imports rose 0.44 mb/d to 5.6 mb/d and exports increased 0.34 mb/d to 4.7 mb/d. The SPR drew a massive 9.1 mb (to 331.2 mb total), the largest single-week SPR draw in months. Cushing, OK stocks fell another 1.1 mb to just 19.0 mb β€” continuing to set multi-year lows at the WTI pricing hub. US field production held essentially flat at 13.8 mb/d. Inventories have now drawn roughly 53 million barrels over nine consecutive weeks since the mid-April peak of 465.7 mb β€” a sustained and deepening bullish fundamental signal at peak summer demand.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending June 19, 2026 (Released June 24, 2026)
Crude Stocks
412.1
β–Ό -6.1 mb w/w
mln bbls | 5.9% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
19.0
β–Ό -1.1 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub | multi-yr low
US Production
13.8
β€” Flat w/w (+0.01 mb/d)
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2)
Refinery Inputs
17.1
β–Ό -0.08 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
96.1%
β–Ό -0.6 ppts w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.6
β–² +0.44 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
4.7
β–² +0.34 mb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCREXUS2)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$0.36
CLQ26–CLU26
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Backwardation (Jun 24)
SPR Stocks
331.2
β–Ό -9.1 mb w/w
mln bbls | strategic reserve
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending June 19, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)17.11
Crude Exports4.67
Total Crude Disposition~21.78
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.82
Crude Imports5.57
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+1.29
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~21.18
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-6.1 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)412.1-6.1-5.9%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)19.0-1.1Multi-yr low
Motor Gasoline (Total)216.3+2.1N/A
Distillate Fuel Oil106.1+3.1N/A
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel46.3+1.3N/A
Refinery Throughput17.1 mb/d-0.08 mb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate96.1%-0.6 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: All stocks confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending June 19, 2026: crude (WCESTUS1 412.1 mb, -6.1 mb w/w), Cushing OK (W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK 19.0 mb, -1.1 mb w/w), gasoline (WGTSTUS1 216.3 mb, +2.1 mb), distillate (WDISTUS1 106.1 mb, +3.1 mb), jet fuel (WKJSTUS1 46.3 mb, +1.3 mb), SPR (WCSSTUS1 331.2 mb, -9.1 mb w/w β†’ ~1.29 mb/d release). US crude production confirmed 13.82 mb/d (WCRFPUS2). Crude exports 4.67 mb/d (WCREXUS2). 5yr avg week 26: 437.8 mb (range: 419.0–452.2 mb).
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 412.1 mb (June 19, 2026), ~5.9% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–26 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage built by +73 Bcf for the week ending June 12, 2026, reaching 2,759 Bcf β€” slightly below the five-year average injection of +78 Bcf, a modest deceleration in the refill pace. Inventories now stand 114 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average (2,645 Bcf) and 43 Bcf below year-ago levels (2,802 Bcf, June 13, 2025), as the year-on-year deficit continues to widen. Strong dry gas production (~117 Bcf/d per EIA STEO) continues alongside robust LNG exports (~17.6 Bcf/d, April 2026 avg). The 5-year average injection for the upcoming week of June 19 is +77 Bcf, which would push inventories to ~2,836 Bcf if realized.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending June 12, 2026 (Released June 18, 2026). Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R*_BCF).
Working Gas in Storage
2,759
β–² +73 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending June 12
W/W Injection
+73
β–Ό Below 5yr avg (+78 Bcf)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 2,645 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+114
β–² Above 5yr avg
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,645 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
-43
β–Ό Below year ago
Bcf vs June 13, 2025 (2,802 Bcf)
Dry Gas Production
~117
Near record high
Bcf/d (EIA STEO May 2026)
LNG Exports
~17.6
↓ from 18.1 Mar avg
Bcf/d (April 2026 avg, STEO)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Jun 19 Wk Estimate
+77
5yr avg injection
Bcf (ISO wk 25 seasonal avg)
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.61
β–Ό -$0.01 w/w
S26(Jul–Oct)–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· Winter Premium Widening
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
All 13 weeks confirmed from EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). 5-year band = actual historical high/low by ISO week (2021–2025). 2-year view: last week-ending of each month from EIA. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionJune 12 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
East532+18-10
Midwest638+28+11
Mountain226+4+46
Pacific309+5+66
South Central1,053+16-1
Total US2,759+73+114
βœ… Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 for week ending June 12, 2026. Total: 2,759 Bcf (East 532 + Midwest 638 + Mountain 226 + Pacific 309 + South Central 1,053). 5-yr avgs by ISO wk 24 (2021–2025).
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~117 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (April 2026 avg)~17.6 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.21, 2027 avg 18.61 Bcf/d
This month: Canada's most recent monthly production data (March 2026, Statistics Canada) remains the latest available, showing crude oil and equivalent production at ~5.46 mb/d (26.9 million mΒ³, +0.2% YoY) and crude exports at a record ~4.56 mb/d (22.5 million mΒ³, +4.2% YoY) β€” the highest level since the series began in 2016, supported by Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline capacity. StatsCan's April 2026 international merchandise trade release (June 9) showed total exports up 1.6% to a record $75.2B with a $2.7B trade surplus, with energy products the largest contributor to the gain (+9.7%) and crude oil contributing ~7.0% of the increase β€” pointing to continued strength in April crude volumes ahead of official production data. Canada's weekly rig count (week ending June 18, 2026) rose to 186 rigs (129 oil, 56 gas, 1 misc), up 6 from the prior week, continuing the post-spring-breakup recovery in the Montney and oil sands plays β€” now up 47 rigs from year-ago levels.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (production/exports: March 2026, latest available; merchandise trade value release: April 2026, released June 9, 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending June 18, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export volume data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled.
Crude Oil Production
~5.46
β–² +0.2% YoY
mb/d | Mar 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.56
β–² Record high (+4.2% YoY)
mb/d | Mar 2026 | New series record
Rig Count (Oil)
129
β–² +8 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 18, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
56
β–Ό -2 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 18, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
1.76 Bcf/d
β–² Record high since LNG Canada opened
Mar 2026 Β· 57.6M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
Gas Exports to US
8.63 Bcf/d
β–Ό -10.8% YoY
Mar 2026 Β· 282.1M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$1.97
β–Ό -$0.05 w/w
Jul-26 fwd vs HH Β· 0.7071 CAD/USD Β· gasalberta.com
Canadian Crude Oil Metrics Most recent available β€” March 2026 (StatsCan, released Jun 1, 2026)
Crude Oil MetricValuePeriodNotes
Total Production (crude & equiv.)~5.46 mb/dMar 202626.9 mln mΒ³/mo (StatsCan); +0.2% YoY
Crude Oil Exports~4.56 mb/dMar 202622.5 mln mΒ³; record high since 2016; +4.2% YoY
Net Exports (prod. – dom. use est.)~4.2 mb/dMar 2026Estimate
Oil Sands Production~3.5+ mb/d2026 est.Synthetic crude -6.4% due to AB gas pipeline maintenance; bitumen +2.1%
2026 Production Forecast~5.5 mb/dFull YrCER Current Measures scenario
2030 Production Target5.8 mb/dForecastCER 2026 Energy Future report
Annual Industry Revenue$165.4B2026 est.CAPP estimate; down YoY on weaker prices
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)N/ANot confirmed from search
AER / CER Outlook (2026)
Oil Sands GrowthContinues to 2050On track
Oil Sands by 20504.1 mb/dCER Current Measures
Global Rank – Crude4th largestWorld producer
Global Rank – Nat Gas5th largestWorld producer
Trans Mountain ExpansionOperationalActive
Western Canada Natural Gas Storage Billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Seasonal comparison 2024–2026
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America saw a net +7 rigs week-over-week for the week ending June 18, with Canada adding 6 rigs to 186 while the US added 1 to 563, for a combined count of 749. Canada's post-spring-breakup recovery continues, led by oil rigs adding 8 w/w to 129 while gas rigs eased 2 to 56. In the US, gas rigs added 1 w/w to 122 while oil rigs held flat at 433 and the Gulf of Mexico added 1 to 7. US production at 13.8 mb/d remains near record highs, underscoring continued efficiency gains despite a flat rig count. The Permian Basin's 256 active rigs remains the dominant basin, holding steady week-over-week.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending June 18, 2026 (Released June 19, 2026)
US Total Rigs
563
β–² +1 w/w
vs prior week 562
US Oil Rigs
433
β€” Flat w/w
Primary oil-directed
US Gas Rigs
122
β–² +1 w/w
Natural gas-directed
Gulf of Mexico
7
β–² +1 w/w
Offshore rigs
Canada Total
186
β–² +6 w/w
Post-breakup recovery
Canada Oil Rigs
129
β–² +8 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
56
β–Ό -2 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
749
β–² +7 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs4330438
  Gas Rigs122+1111
  Gulf of Mexico7+110
  Geothermal805
Major Basins (US)
  Permian2560271
  Haynesville55036
  Eagle Ford44041
  Williston28031
  US Total563+1554
Canada
  Oil Rigs129+893
  Gas Rigs56-246
  Canada Total186+6139
North America Total749+7693
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending June 18, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: CFTC's June 16, 2026 Disaggregated COT report shows continued accumulation across all three contracts. NYMEX WTI Physical managed money longs rose to 220,173 (+6,690 w/w) while shorts also increased to 123,945 (+5,187 w/w), lifting the net long marginally to +96,228 contracts (from +94,725). ICE Europe WTI improved its net short to -23,666 contracts (+3,902 w/w), as both longs fell to 3,458 and shorts fell sharply to 27,124. Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long rose to +72,562 contracts, up from +67,157 the prior week (+5,405). Brent Last Day (NYMEX) net long firmed to +8,130 contracts (+375 w/w). Including Brent, total net long exposure across all three contracts stands at approximately +80.7k contracts. The NYMEX WTI Long/Short ratio is 1.78x.
πŸ“‹ Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders β€” Managed Money Category. All positions confirmed as of June 16, 2026 (released June 20, 2026). No carried-forward values this week. Note: CFTC reports Tuesday positions; released following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
+72.6k
contracts (net long)
Up from +67.2k β€” as of Jun 16, 2026
Brent Net Long (Last Day NYMEX)
+8.1k
contracts (net long)
Up from +7.8k β€” as of Jun 16, 2026
Combined WTI + Brent
+80.7k
contracts
Up from +74.9k β€” all contracts confirmed
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.78x
longs vs shorts
L 220k vs S 124k (Jun 16, 2026)
Market Signal
πŸ“ˆ Net Long β€” Building
NYMEX adds length; ICE Europe shorts cover sharply
Combined net long +5.4k w/w to multi-week high
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Jun 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. Confirmed as of Jun 16, 2026 (all contracts): WTI Physical (NYMEX) Long 220.2k, Short 123.9k, Net +96.2k. ICE Europe WTI Long 3.5k, Short 27.1k, Net -23.7k. Brent Last Day (NYMEX) Long 11.4k, Short 3.2k, Net +8.1k. Combined WTI (NYMEX+ICE) Net +72.6k. Pre-2026 history approximated from CFTC/EIA public trend data. Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jun 16, 2026 (All Contracts Confirmed) | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) 220,173 123,945 +96,228 +6,690 +5,187 +1,503 2,007,709 Net Long
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) 3,458 27,124 -23,666 -2,413 -6,315 +3,902 822,990 Bearish
Brent Last Day (NYMEX) 11,351 3,221 +8,130 +765 +390 +375 251,903 Net Long
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) 223,631 151,069 +72,562 β€” β€” +5,405 β€” Net Long
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Net Long β€” Building Momentum (All Contracts Confirmed)

As of June 16, 2026, NYMEX WTI Physical managed money longs rose to 220,173 (+6,690 w/w) while shorts also increased to 123,945 (+5,187 w/w), lifting the net long to +96,228 contracts (from +94,725), a modest improvement of +1,503. This represents approximately 11.0% of total open interest on the long side vs. 6.2% on the short side. Both sides added positions, indicating fresh two-way engagement rather than simple short-covering.

ICE Europe WTI improved sharply to net short -23,666 contracts (from -27,568, a change of +3,902) as shorts covered heavily to 27,124 (-6,315 w/w) while longs also eased to 3,458 (-2,413 w/w). Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long rose to +72,562 contracts, up from +67,157 the prior week β€” a gain of +5,405, the strongest weekly improvement in six weeks.

Brent Last Day (NYMEX) continued to firm, rising to net long +8,130 contracts (+375 w/w), as longs rose to 11,351 (+765) while shorts increased modestly to 3,221 (+390). Including Brent, combined net long exposure across all three contracts stands at approximately +80.7k contracts, up from +74.9k the prior week β€” the highest combined net long since early April 2026.

Context: The build in combined net long positioning comes alongside continued sizable drawdowns in US commercial crude inventories (-6.1 mb to 412.1 mb, now 5.9% below the 5-yr seasonal average and 53 mb below the April peak), Cushing stocks falling to a fresh multi-year low of 19.0 mb, and a massive SPR draw of 9.1 mb. The WTI prompt spread (CLQ26–CLU26) sits at only +$0.36/bbl backwardation β€” suggesting near-term tightness is well-supported physically even if the structure is modest. With managed money net long across all three contracts rising toward +80k combined and ICE Europe short-covering accelerating, positioning has a clear bullish tilt but remains well short of the 3-4x long/short ratios and 150k+ net longs seen in peak 2023-24 bullish positioning phases.