πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: July 19, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending July 10, 2026
CFTC As-Of: July 14, 2026 (ICE Europe WTI & ICE Brent Crude confirmed; NYMEX WTI Physical managed-money split carried forward)
This week: US commercial crude inventories resumed their draw, falling 1.7 million barrels for the week ending July 10 to 409.7 Mbbls β€” roughly 6.3% below the five-year seasonal average of ~437.2 mb. Refinery utilization firmed to 96.2% (+0.4 ppts) as crude inputs rose to 17.1 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d), while crude imports increased modestly to 5.7 mb/d (+0.06 mb/d). The SPR continued its steady drawdown, releasing another 3.0 mb (to 316.5 mb total). Cushing, OK stocks edged up 0.43 mb to roughly 20.0 mb. Gasoline stocks fell 1.5 mb while distillate built sharply, up 4.6 mb, and propane/propylene rose 3.0 mb. The dominant story this week is geopolitical: escalating US-Iran conflict and attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sent crude prices surging and blew out the WTI prompt spread to +$0.71/bbl backwardation (Aug26-Sep26, as of Jul 17) from +$0.33 the prior week β€” the futures curve is pricing a real, live supply-disruption risk on top of an already-tight physical balance.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending July 10, 2026 (Released July 15, 2026). Crude oil field production and crude exports are estimated (est.) pending full confirmation from EIA API this run.
Crude Stocks
409.7
β–Ό -1.7 mb w/w
mln bbls | 6.3% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
20.0
β–² +0.43 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub
US Production
~13.9
Est., near record
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2, est.)
Refinery Inputs
17.1
β–² +0.10 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
96.2%
β–² +0.4 ppts w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.7
β–² +0.06 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
~3.9
Est. w/w
mb/d (est., not confirmed this run)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$0.71
β–² +$0.38 w/w
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Iran-US Escalation (Jul 17)
SPR Stocks
316.5
β–Ό -3.0 mb w/w
mln bbls | strategic reserve
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending July 10, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)17.10
Crude Exports (est.)~3.90
Total Crude Disposition~21.00
SUPPLY
US Field Production (est.)~13.90
Crude Imports5.70
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+0.43
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~20.53
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-1.7 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)409.7-1.7-6.3%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)~20.0+0.43β€”
Motor Gasoline (Total)~210.6-1.58% below 5yr
Distillate Fuel Oil~108.2+4.611% below 5yr
Propane/Propyleneβ€”+3.028% above 5yr
Refinery Throughput17.1 mb/d+0.10 mb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate96.2%+0.4 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: Confirmed from EIA WPSR release (July 15, 2026) for week ending July 10, 2026: crude stocks (WCESTUS1) 409.7 mb, -1.7 mb w/w, ~6.3% below the ~437.2 mb 5-yr seasonal average for week 28; Cushing +0.43 mb w/w; SPR (WCSSTUS1) 316.5 mb, -3.0 mb w/w; refinery inputs 17.1 mb/d (+0.10 mb/d w/w); utilization 96.2% (+0.4 ppts); crude imports 5.7 mb/d (+0.06 mb/d); gasoline -1.5 mb w/w (8% below 5yr); distillate +4.6 mb w/w (11% below 5yr); propane/propylene +3.0 mb w/w (28% above 5yr). US crude field production and crude exports are estimated (est.) this run β€” the precise weekly WCRFPUS2/WCREXUS2 series values were not independently reconfirmed from public sources; directionally production is holding near recent record levels and exports are estimated near ~3.9 mb/d.
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 409.7 mb (July 10, 2026), ~6.3% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–28 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage built by +41 Bcf for the week ending July 10, 2026, reaching 3,024 Bcf β€” a smaller injection than the five-year average of +45 Bcf for this week. Inventories now stand 181 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average (2,843 Bcf) and 21 Bcf below year-ago levels (3,045 Bcf, July 11, 2025), a slight narrowing from the -23 Bcf year-on-year gap the prior week. Dry gas production (~111 Bcf/d, carried forward pending fresh confirmation) and LNG exports (~17.2 Bcf/d, 2026 STEO avg) both continue to run near record levels, providing a firm demand floor even as the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep global LNG and fuel markets on edge. Regional detail below is estimated pro-rata from last week's confirmed shares, since only the national total (3,024 Bcf) was independently reconfirmed this run.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending July 10, 2026 (Released July 16, 2026). Regional breakdown estimated pro-rata from prior week's shares β€” not independently reconfirmed via EIA API this run.
Working Gas in Storage
3,024
β–² +41 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending July 10
W/W Injection
+41
β–Ό Below 5yr avg (+45 Bcf)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 2,843 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+181
β–² Above 5yr avg
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,843 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
-21
Deficit narrowing slightly
Bcf vs July 11, 2025 (3,045 Bcf)
Dry Gas Production
~111
Near record high (prior week)
Bcf/d (EIA STEO Jun 2026 est., carried forward)
LNG Exports
~17.2
2026 annual avg (prior week)
Bcf/d (2026 avg, EIA STEO Jun 2026)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Jul 17 Wk Estimate
~+34
5yr avg injection (est.)
Bcf (ISO wk 29 seasonal avg, est.)
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.66
(prior week)
S26(Aug-Oct)–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· carried forward
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
Most recent confirmed national total: 3,024 Bcf (July 10, 2026). Weeks through July 3 confirmed from EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF); July 10 point and 5-yr band tail estimated pending full API reconfirmation. 2-year view: last week-ending of each month from EIA. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionJuly 10 (Bcf, est.)W/W Chg (est.)vs 5yr Avg
East~608~+8N/A
Midwest~739~+10N/A
Mountain~239~+3N/A
Pacific~323~+4N/A
South Central~1,115~+16N/A
Total US3,024+41+181
⚠️ National total (3,024 Bcf, +41 Bcf w/w) confirmed from EIA release; regional breakdown above is estimated pro-rata from the prior week's confirmed regional shares (East 600 + Midwest 729 + Mountain 236 + Pacific 319 + South Central 1,100 = 2,984, week ending July 3) and should be treated as indicative only until independently reconfirmed.
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~111 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (2026 avg, STEO Jun)~17.2 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026 (prior week)
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.2, 2027 avg 18.6 Bcf/d
This month: Statistics Canada's April 2026 energy statistics (released June 30) remain the latest confirmed monthly release β€” May 2026 data had not yet been published as of this run β€” showing crude oil and equivalent production at ~5.45 mb/d (+4.2% YoY) and crude exports at ~4.53 mb/d (+11.4% YoY), boosted by Middle East supply disruption pulling more Canadian barrels into Asian and European markets. That disruption has since escalated sharply: the US resumed strikes on Iran in mid-July, and Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global crude and product markets further, a dynamic likely to show up in Canadian export data once May/June figures are released. On drilling, Baker Hughes' week ending July 16, 2026 count shows Canada rebounding 19 rigs to 198 (136 oil, 59 gas, 3 misc) β€” a four-month high β€” reversing the prior week's 11-rig pullback and running 2 rigs above year-ago levels.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (production/exports: April 2026, released June 30, 2026 β€” May 2026 release not yet available) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending July 16, 2026, released July 17, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export volume data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled. LNG exports, gas exports to US, and AECO basis carried forward from prior week (prior week) β€” no newer weekly gas market data confirmed this run.
Crude Oil Production
~5.45
β–² +4.2% YoY
mb/d | Apr 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.53
β–² +11.4% YoY (largest since May-21)
mb/d | Apr 2026 | Hormuz-driven demand
Rig Count (Oil)
136
β–² +18 w/w
rigs | Week Ending July 16, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
59
β–² +2 w/w
rigs | Week Ending July 16, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
1.76 Bcf/d
(prior week)
Mar 2026 Β· 57.6M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
Gas Exports to US
8.63 Bcf/d
(prior week)
Mar 2026 Β· 282.1M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$1.87
β–² +$0.33 w/w
Aug-26 fwd vs HH Β· 0.706 CAD/USD Β· gasalberta.com
Canadian Natural Gas & Large Load Tracker Natural gas: March 2026 (StatsCan/CER) | Large load: AESO Connection List, Jun 2026
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)~1.52 CAD/GJJul-26 fwd (~$1.13 USD/MMBtu) Β· gasalberta.com
Alberta Large Load (Data Centre) Tracker
Requested (Data Load projects)20,835 MW42 projects
Phase 1 Allocated1,200 MWFully allocated
Remaining in Queue (est.)~19,635 MW~94% of requested
Stage 1 (Early Study)6,515 MW16 projects
Stage 2 (Advanced Study)14,320 MW26 projects
Large Load Connection Queue & Natural Gas Storage AESO Connection Project List Jun 2026 Β· CER Western Canada Gas Storage
Data Load Connection Queue β€” Requests to Study Stage
LARGE LOAD REQUESTS 20.8 GW 42 projects Β· AESO Connection List, Jun 2026 1.2 GW Phase 1 Β· fully allocated STILL IN QUEUE 19.6 GW ~94% of requested Β· 42 projects 6.5 GW Stage 1 Β· 16 projects 14.3 GW Stage 2 Β· 26 projects
Source: AESO Connection Project List, June 2026 (aeso.ca/grid/transmission-projects/connection-project-reporting). Filtered to MW Type = "Data Load" (42 projects, 20,835 MW total β€” sum of all disclosed energization-stage MW per project). Phase 1 Large Load Integration allocation (1,200 MW, fully allocated per AESO's Nov 2025 announcement β€” executed load contracts) is tracked via a separate AESO process and is not a column in this list; "Still in Queue" nets it against the June 2026 requested total as an approximation. Remaining queue is broken down by AESO study Stage (1 = Early Study, 2 = Advanced Study); no Data Load projects have reached Stage 3+ as of this release. Full project-level detail: AESO Connection Project Dashboard.
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America jumped +26 rigs to 786 for the week ending July 16 β€” a 15-month high for the US and a four-month high for Canada. The US rose 7 rigs to 588, with oil rigs up 7 to 452 (the highest since May 2025) while gas rigs held flat at 126 and Gulf of Mexico/misc rigs added 1 to 10. Canada rebounded sharply, up 19 rigs to 198, reversing the prior week's 11-rig pullback, with oil rigs up 18 to 136 and gas rigs up 2 to 59. The Permian Basin added 3 rigs to 259, again the largest single-basin move; Haynesville, Eagle Ford and Williston were all unchanged. US activity is up 44 rigs (+8%) from a year ago, consistent with firm producer economics amid the Iran-US conflict-driven price spike.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending July 16, 2026 (Released July 17, 2026)
US Total Rigs
588
β–² +7 w/w
15-month high | vs prior week 581
US Oil Rigs
452
β–² +7 w/w
Highest since May 2025
US Gas Rigs
126
β€” Flat w/w
Natural gas-directed
Gulf of Mexico
10
β–² +1 w/w
Offshore/misc rigs
Canada Total
198
β–² +19 w/w
Four-month high
Canada Oil Rigs
136
β–² +18 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
59
β–² +2 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
786
β–² +26 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs452+7445
  Gas Rigs1260108
  Gulf of Mexico / Misc10+19
Major Basins (US)
  Permian259+3261
  Haynesville55037
  Eagle Ford47041
  Williston27031
  US Total588+7544
Canada
  Oil Rigs136+18130
  Gas Rigs59+252
  Misc3-1β€”
  Canada Total198+19196
North America Total786+26740
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending July 16, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: Positioning was dominated by the escalating US-Iran conflict. ICE Europe WTI managed money flipped sharply more bearish, deepening to -24,220 contracts net short as of July 14, 2026 (Long 4,808 / Short 29,028) from -14,657 the prior confirmed week β€” shorts were rebuilt aggressively even as the broader oil complex rallied. The real story, however, is Brent: ICE's own Commitments of Traders Report shows managed money net long in ICE Brent Crude surging +75,996 contracts to +357,154 for the week ending July 14 β€” the largest weekly increase since December 2016 β€” as Iran's retaliatory strikes on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid short-covering rally and a scramble into bullish length. NYMEX WTI Physical's managed-money long/short breakout was not independently confirmed from public sources this run and is carried forward from June 30 (+81,282 net long); however, the broader non-commercial futures-only measure for WTI (all speculators, CFTC legacy report) eased to +62,683 contracts as of July 14 (-13,066 w/w), suggesting WTI-specific speculative length continued to soften even as Brent length surged β€” a real divergence between the two benchmarks amid the conflict.
πŸ“‹ Data: ICE Europe WTI (CFTC Disaggregated COT, Managed Money) and ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe's own COTR, Managed Money) confirmed as of July 14, 2026 (released July 17, 2026). NYMEX WTI Physical managed-money long/short split not independently confirmed this run β€” carried forward from June 30, 2026 (prior week); directional color sourced from the CFTC legacy (non-disaggregated) futures-only report. Note: CFTC and ICE both report Tuesday positions, released the following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
~+57.1k
contracts (est.; NYMEX leg prior week)
ICE Europe flipped to -24.2k net short (Jul 14)
Brent Net Long (ICE Brent Crude)
+357.2k
contracts (net long)
β–² +76.0k w/w β€” biggest jump since Dec 2016 (Jul 14, 2026)
Combined WTI + Brent (Est.)
~+414.2k
contracts (est.; NYMEX leg prior week)
Brent surge drives combined net sharply higher
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.66x
longs vs shorts (prior week)
L 204k vs S 122k (Jun 30, 2026, carried forward)
Market Signal
πŸ“ˆ Brent Surge on Iran-US Conflict
Hedge funds rush into Brent length; ICE Europe WTI turns more bearish
Real WTI/Brent divergence amid Strait of Hormuz risk
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Jul 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. WTI from CFTC Disaggregated COT (WTI Physical, NYMEX; managed money); Brent from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report (ICE Brent Crude Futures, FutOnly; managed money) β€” the genuine global Brent benchmark, which CFTC does not cover since it is UK/FCA-regulated. Confirmed as of Jul 14, 2026: Brent Net +357.2k (Long/Short split estimated). The two most recent WTI points (Jul 7 and Jul 14, 2026) are estimated from the CFTC legacy non-commercial futures-only trend (net ~+75.7k and ~+62.7k respectively) pending confirmation of the official disaggregated managed-money long/short split. Sources: CFTC Disaggregated COT (publicreporting.cftc.gov) and ICE COT Report (ice.com/report/122).
⚠️ Methodology note: WTI and Brent aren't measured on a fully symmetric basis here. "WTI" is CFTC's single largest WTI contract (Physical, NYMEX) β€” the smaller ICE Europe WTI contract (OI ~792k) is tracked separately in the table below and excluded from this chart and from the "Combined WTI + Brent" figures. "Brent" is ICE's one primary Brent Crude contract (OI likely >2.7M given the current surge), which has no comparably-sized secondary contract to exclude. The most recent two WTI data points in the chart are estimated (see chart note above) pending confirmation of the official NYMEX Physical managed-money split for Jul 7 and Jul 14, 2026.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jul 14, 2026 (ICE Europe WTI & ICE Brent Confirmed; NYMEX WTI Physical Prior Week) | CFTC / ICE COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) Prior Wk 203,601 122,319 +81,282 β€” β€” β€” (carried fwd) 1,914,443 Net Long (stale)
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) 4,808 29,028 -24,220 +982 +10,545 -9,563 791,680 Bearish
ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe) est. est. +357,154 β€” β€” +75,996 β€” Net Long β€” Surging
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe, est.) est. est. ~+57,062 β€” β€” ~-9,563 β€” Est. Net Long
Combined WTI + Brent (All Benchmarks, est.) est. est. ~+414,216 β€” β€” ~+66,433 β€” Net Long
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Brent Surges on Iran-US Conflict; WTI Legs Diverge

The week ending July 14, 2026 was dominated by the escalating US-Iran conflict rather than routine positioning drift. ICE Europe WTI managed money turned sharply more bearish, with longs edging up to 4,808 (+982 w/w) but shorts jumping to 29,028 (+10,545 w/w), deepening the net short position to -24,220 contracts from -14,657 the prior confirmed week β€” a swing of -9,563. Open interest in this contract eased to 791,680.

The dominant move was in ICE Brent Crude, the true global benchmark reported by ICE Futures Europe rather than CFTC. Managed money net long surged +75,996 contracts to +357,154 for the week ending July 14 β€” the largest single-week increase since December 2016 β€” as the US resumed strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid reversal from a seven-month low in positioning the prior week to aggressive short-covering and fresh bullish length. This is a real, sharp shift in sentiment, not a data artifact.

NYMEX WTI Physical's precise managed-money long/short split was not independently confirmed from public sources this run; the June 30, 2026 reading (+81,282 net long) is carried forward and flagged "(prior week)." However, the CFTC's legacy (non-disaggregated) futures-only report β€” which tracks all speculative categories combined for the same NYMEX contract β€” shows net length easing to +62,683 contracts as of July 14 (from +75,749 the prior week, -13,066), suggesting WTI-specific speculative length continued to soften even as global (Brent) length surged. Combining the carried-forward NYMEX figure with the confirmed ICE Europe reading gives an estimated combined WTI net long of roughly +57.1k contracts, and combined WTI+Brent of roughly +414.2k contracts β€” treat both as directional estimates given the stale NYMEX leg.

Context: This positioning shift lines up with the physical and price backdrop: US commercial crude inventories drew 1.7 mb to 409.7 mb for the week ending July 10 (6.3% below the 5-yr average), and the WTI prompt spread (Aug26-Sep26) blew out to +$0.71/bbl backwardation from +$0.33 the prior week as of July 17 β€” both consistent with a market pricing a live geopolitical supply-disruption premium on top of an already-tight balance. The WTI/Brent positioning divergence (Brent racing higher on Middle East risk, WTI-specific length softening) is a genuine cross-market signal worth monitoring: it suggests speculators see the immediate risk premium as concentrated in the internationally-exposed Brent benchmark rather than domestic US crude fundamentals. Across the full 2021-2026 history, combined WTI+Brent managed-money net long has ranged from roughly +14k (Oct 2025 trough) to +724k (Feb 2021 peak); at an estimated +414.2k, current positioning is now firmly in the upper half of that range and rising fast.

Data Sources
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) Β· EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Β· CFTC Commitments of Traders Β· Baker Hughes North America Rig Count Β· Statistics Canada Energy Statistics Β· CAPP Data Centre Β· Canada Energy Regulator (CER) Β· EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2026)

Disclaimer: Generated automatically by scheduled task on July 19, 2026. Some data points marked as estimates (est.) or not available (N/A) where exact weekly figures could not be confirmed from public web sources, including US crude field production/exports (EIA), regional natural gas storage detail (EIA), and the NYMEX WTI Physical managed-money long/short split (CFTC), which is carried forward from June 30, 2026. Always verify against primary sources before trading or investment decisions. Kaibur Consulting β€” Internal Use Only.