πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: July 24, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending July 17, 2026 (EIA WPSR/WNGSR)
CFTC As-Of: July 14, 2026 (July 21, 2026 report not yet published at compile time β€” see Positioning tab)
This week: US commercial crude inventories built 2.0 million barrels for the week ending July 17 to 411.7 Mbbls β€” roughly 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization eased slightly to 96.1% (-0.1 ppt) as crude inputs slipped to 17.07 mb/d (-0.06 mb/d), while crude imports rose to 5.81 mb/d (+0.12 mb/d) and crude exports pulled back to 3.35 mb/d (-0.37 mb/d) β€” both figures independently confirmed via the EIA API this run, no longer estimates. US field production also confirmed at 13.80 mb/d (-0.06 mb/d w/w), still near record levels. The SPR continued its drawdown, releasing another 5.1 mb (to 311.4 mb total) β€” now at its lowest level in over 43 years. Cushing, OK stocks fell 0.67 mb to 19.37 mb. Gasoline stocks rose 0.8 mb (7% below 5yr avg) while distillate built 1.4 mb (10% below 5yr avg), and propane/propylene rose sharply, up 6.3 mb (34% above 5yr avg). The WTI prompt spread held at +$0.71/bbl backwardation (Aug26-Sep26) β€” the last independently confirmed reading (as of Jul 17); no fresher spread confirmation was available this run. The Strait of Hormuz disruption and US-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of the physical balance and the futures curve's persistent backwardation.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending July 17, 2026 (Released July 22, 2026). All KPIs below β€” including crude field production and crude exports β€” independently confirmed via the EIA API v2 this run.
Crude Stocks
411.7
β–² +2.0 mb w/w
mln bbls | 6% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
19.37
β–Ό -0.67 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub
US Production
13.80
β–Ό -0.06 mb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2, confirmed)
Refinery Inputs
17.07
β–Ό -0.06 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
96.1%
β–Ό -0.1 ppt w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.81
β–² +0.12 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
3.35
β–Ό -0.37 mb/d w/w
mb/d (confirmed via EIA API)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$0.71
β€” (prior week)
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· last confirmed Jul 17
SPR Stocks
311.4
β–Ό -5.1 mb w/w
mln bbls | lowest in 43+ yrs
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending July 17, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)17.07
Crude Exports3.35
Total Crude Disposition~20.42
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.80
Crude Imports5.81
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+5.06
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~25.17
Net Implied Balance (Actual EIA Stock Chg.)+2.0 mb (build)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)411.7+2.0-6%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)19.37-0.67β€”
Motor Gasoline (Total)~211.4+0.87% below 5yr
Distillate Fuel Oil~109.6+1.410% below 5yr
Propane/Propyleneβ€”+6.334% above 5yr
Refinery Throughput17.07 mb/d-0.06 mb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate96.1%-0.1 pptβ€”
βœ… Note: Confirmed from EIA WPSR release (July 22, 2026) for week ending July 17, 2026: crude stocks (WCESTUS1) 411.7 mb, +2.0 mb w/w, ~6% below the 5-yr seasonal average; Cushing (W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL) 19.37 mb, -0.67 mb w/w; SPR (WCSSTUS1) 311.4 mb, -5.1 mb w/w (lowest in 43+ years); refinery inputs (WCRRIUS2) 17.07 mb/d (-0.06 mb/d w/w); utilization (WPULEUS3) 96.1% (-0.1 ppt); crude imports (WCRIMUS2) 5.81 mb/d (+0.12 mb/d); crude exports (WCREXUS2) 3.35 mb/d (-0.37 mb/d); crude field production (WCRFPUS2) 13.80 mb/d (-0.06 mb/d w/w). All series independently confirmed via EIA API v2 this run β€” no estimates. Gasoline +0.8 mb w/w (7% below 5yr); distillate +1.4 mb w/w (10% below 5yr); propane/propylene +6.3 mb w/w (34% above 5yr) per EIA Today in Energy (Jul 22, 2026). WTI prompt spread (+$0.71/bbl, Aug26-Sep26) carried forward from Jul 17 β€” no fresher confirmation available this run.
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 411.7 mb (July 17, 2026), ~6% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–29 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage built by +32 Bcf for the week ending July 17, 2026, reaching 3,056 Bcf β€” roughly in line with the five-year average injection of +30 Bcf for this week. Inventories now stand 183 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average (2,873 Bcf) and 16 Bcf below year-ago levels, a further narrowing from the -21 Bcf year-on-year gap the prior week. Dry gas production (~111 Bcf/d) and LNG exports (~17.2 Bcf/d, 2026 STEO avg) are carried forward from the prior week β€” no fresher confirmation was available this run β€” and continue to run near record levels, providing a firm demand floor even as the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep global LNG and fuel markets on edge. Regional detail below is estimated pro-rata from the new national total (3,056 Bcf), which was independently confirmed via the EIA API this run.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending July 17, 2026 (Released July 23, 2026). National total independently confirmed via EIA API v2. Regional breakdown estimated pro-rata from the confirmed national total β€” not independently reconfirmed by region this run.
Working Gas in Storage
3,056
β–² +32 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending July 17
W/W Injection
+32
β‰ˆ In line w/ 5yr avg (+30 Bcf)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 2,873 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+183
β–² Above 5yr avg
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,873 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
-16
Deficit narrowing further
Bcf vs July 18, 2025 (est.)
Dry Gas Production
~111
Near record high (prior week)
Bcf/d (EIA STEO Jun 2026 est., carried forward)
LNG Exports
~17.2
2026 annual avg (prior week)
Bcf/d (2026 avg, EIA STEO Jun 2026)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Jul 24 Wk Estimate
~+28
5yr avg injection (est.)
Bcf (ISO wk 30 seasonal avg, est.)
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.66
(prior week)
S26(Aug-Oct)–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· carried forward
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
Most recent confirmed national total: 3,056 Bcf (July 17, 2026), confirmed via EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). 5-yr avg confirmed at 2,873 Bcf; 5-yr high/low band tail estimated by trend continuation pending full API reconfirmation. 2-year view: last week-ending of each month from EIA. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionJuly 17 (Bcf, est.)W/W Chg (est.)vs 5yr Avg
East~614~+6N/A
Midwest~747~+8N/A
Mountain~241~+2N/A
Pacific~326~+3N/A
South Central~1,128~+13N/A
Total US3,056+32+183
⚠️ National total (3,056 Bcf, +32 Bcf w/w) confirmed from EIA API; regional breakdown above is estimated pro-rata, scaled from the prior week's regional table (East 608 + Midwest 739 + Mountain 239 + Pacific 323 + South Central 1,115 = 3,024, week ending July 10) and should be treated as indicative only until independently reconfirmed by region.
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~111 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (2026 avg, STEO Jun)~17.2 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026 (prior week)
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.2, 2027 avg 18.6 Bcf/d
This month: Statistics Canada's April 2026 energy statistics (released June 30) remain the latest confirmed monthly release β€” May 2026 data was independently re-checked this run and still had not been published as of July 24 β€” showing crude oil and equivalent production at ~5.45 mb/d (+4.2% YoY) and crude exports at ~4.53 mb/d (+11.4% YoY), boosted by Middle East supply disruption pulling more Canadian barrels into Asian and European markets. That disruption remains unresolved: the US-Iran conflict and Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue to tighten global crude and product markets, a dynamic likely to show up in Canadian export data once May/June figures are released. On drilling, Baker Hughes' week ending July 24, 2026 count showed Canada jumping 6 rigs to 204 (138 oil, 62 gas, 4 misc) β€” a fresh multi-month high, building on the prior week's four-month high of 198.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (production/exports: April 2026, released June 30, 2026 β€” May 2026 release still not available, independently re-checked July 24) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending July 24, 2026, released July 24, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export volume data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled. LNG exports, gas exports to US, and AECO basis carried forward from prior week (prior week) β€” no newer weekly gas market data confirmed this run.
Crude Oil Production
~5.45
β–² +4.2% YoY
mb/d | Apr 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.53
β–² +11.4% YoY (largest since May-21)
mb/d | Apr 2026 | Hormuz-driven demand
Rig Count (Oil)
138
β–² +2 w/w
rigs | Week Ending July 24, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
62
β–² +3 w/w
rigs | Week Ending July 24, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
1.76 Bcf/d
(prior week)
Mar 2026 Β· 57.6M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
Gas Exports to US
8.63 Bcf/d
(prior week)
Mar 2026 Β· 282.1M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$1.87
β–² +$0.33 w/w
Aug-26 fwd vs HH Β· 0.706 CAD/USD Β· gasalberta.com
Canadian Natural Gas & Large Load Tracker Natural gas: March 2026 (StatsCan/CER) | Large load: AESO Connection List, Jun 2026
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)~1.52 CAD/GJJul-26 fwd (~$1.13 USD/MMBtu) Β· gasalberta.com
Alberta Large Load (Data Centre) Tracker
Requested (Data Load projects)20,835 MW42 projects
Phase 1 Allocated1,200 MWFully allocated
Remaining in Queue (est.)~19,635 MW~94% of requested
Stage 1 (Early Study)6,515 MW16 projects
Stage 2 (Advanced Study)14,320 MW26 projects
Large Load Connection Queue & Natural Gas Storage AESO Connection Project List Jun 2026 Β· CER Western Canada Gas Storage
Data Load Connection Queue β€” Requests to Study Stage
LARGE LOAD REQUESTS 20.8 GW 42 projects Β· AESO Connection List, Jun 2026 1.2 GW Phase 1 Β· fully allocated STILL IN QUEUE 19.6 GW ~94% of requested Β· 42 projects 6.5 GW Stage 1 Β· 16 projects 14.3 GW Stage 2 Β· 26 projects
Source: AESO Connection Project List, June 2026 (aeso.ca/grid/transmission-projects/connection-project-reporting). Filtered to MW Type = "Data Load" (42 projects, 20,835 MW total β€” sum of all disclosed energization-stage MW per project). Phase 1 Large Load Integration allocation (1,200 MW, fully allocated per AESO's Nov 2025 announcement β€” executed load contracts) is tracked via a separate AESO process and is not a column in this list; "Still in Queue" nets it against the June 2026 requested total as an approximation. Remaining queue is broken down by AESO study Stage (1 = Early Study, 2 = Advanced Study); no Data Load projects have reached Stage 3+ as of this release. Full project-level detail: AESO Connection Project Dashboard.
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America rose +5 rigs to 791 for the week ending July 24, driven entirely by Canada. The US eased 1 rig to 587, with oil rigs down 2 to 450 even as gas rigs added 1 to 127; Gulf of Mexico/offshore rigs fell 1 to 10. Canada jumped 6 rigs to 204 β€” a fresh multi-month high β€” with oil rigs up 2 to 138 and gas rigs up 3 to 62. Among major US basins, the Permian eased 1 rig to 258 while Haynesville added 1 to 56; Eagle Ford and Williston held flat. US activity is up 45 rigs (+8%) from a year ago, still consistent with firm producer economics amid the ongoing Iran-US conflict price premium.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending July 24, 2026 (released July 24, 2026), pulled from the primary Baker Hughes workbook in the dashboard's Rig Counts folder.
US Total Rigs
587
β–Ό -1 w/w
Week Ending Jul 24 | vs prior week 588
US Oil Rigs
450
β–Ό -2 w/w
Down from 452
US Gas Rigs
127
β–² +1 w/w
Natural gas-directed
Gulf of Mexico
10
β–Ό -1 w/w
Offshore/misc rigs
Canada Total
204
β–² +6 w/w
Fresh multi-month high
Canada Oil Rigs
138
β–² +2 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
62
β–² +3 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
791
β–² +5 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs450-2452
  Gas Rigs127+1126
  Gulf of Mexico / Misc10-111
Major Basins (US)
  Permian258-1259
  Haynesville56+155
  Eagle Ford47047
  Williston27027
  US Total587-1588
Canada
  Oil Rigs138+2136
  Gas Rigs62+359
  Misc4+13
  Canada Total204+6198
North America Total791+5786
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending July 24, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: The CFTC's disaggregated Petroleum COT report for positions as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026 was published Friday and pulled directly from cftc.gov this run β€” a genuine upgrade over recent weeks: NYMEX WTI Physical Managed Money is now directly confirmed (no longer substituted with the broader Legacy Non-Commercial category). WTI Physical net long firmed to +63,979 contracts (Long 187,469 / Short 123,490), essentially flat versus the +61,974 implied a week earlier. WTI Financial (ICE Europe) managed money remained net short but covered aggressively, improving to -17,208 contracts (Long 9,126 / Short 26,334) from -24,220 the prior week β€” a +7,012 swing. ICE Brent Crude's own Commitments of Traders Report (published separately by ICE Futures Europe, not CFTC) is now also confirmed as of July 21, 2026 (Long 353,600 / Short 161,569, sourced directly from ICE's report): managed money net long fell sharply to +192,031 contracts, down -165,123 from the +357,154 confirmed the prior week β€” a significant unwind of the record surge seen the week before. Separately, EIA's weekly WTI spot price (RWTC) jumped to $80.77/bbl (+$8.51 w/w) for the week ending July 17 β€” a sharp move consistent with the ongoing Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz risk premium, even as Brent length was pared back.
πŸ“‹ Data: NYMEX WTI Physical, WTI Financial (ICE Europe), and ICE Brent Crude β€” all three now genuine Managed Money, confirmed as of July 21, 2026. WTI legs pulled directly from cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm (released July 24, 2026); Brent pulled directly from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report (Long/Short/Spreading table, all categories). CFTC and ICE both report Tuesday positions, released the following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe, Managed Money) Net
+46.8k
contracts (net long; both legs now genuine Managed Money)
ICE Europe short-covering: -17.2k net short (Jul 21)
Brent Net Long (ICE Brent Crude)
+192.0k
contracts (net long; confirmed Jul 21, 2026)
β–Ό -165.1k w/w β€” sharp unwind of Jul 14 surge
Combined WTI + Brent
+238.8k
contracts (both legs confirmed Jul 21, 2026)
Brent unwind outweighs WTI improvement
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.52x
longs vs shorts (Managed Money)
L 187k vs S 123k (Jul 21, 2026)
Market Signal
βš–οΈ WTI Firms, Brent Unwinds β€” Divergent Positioning
ICE Europe WTI shorts covered sharply while Brent length was pared back -165.1k
RWTC spot still up $8.51/bbl w/w amid Iran-US escalation
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Jul 2026
Weekly. EIA series RWTC (Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB, US$/bbl). Each point is the week-ending Friday price preceding the corresponding CFTC report date. Shares the x-axis of the positioning chart above.
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. WTI from CFTC Disaggregated COT (WTI Physical, NYMEX; managed money) β€” confirmed genuine Managed Money through Jul 21, 2026 (Long 187.5k / Short 123.5k / Net +64.0k), superseding the legacy Non-Commercial substitute used the prior two weeks. Brent from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report (ICE Brent Crude Futures; managed money) β€” the genuine global Brent benchmark, which CFTC does not cover since it is UK/FCA-regulated β€” also confirmed as of Jul 21, 2026 directly from ICE's published report (Long 353.6k / Short 161.6k / Net +192.0k), down sharply from +357.2k the prior week. Sources: CFTC Disaggregated COT (publicreporting.cftc.gov, cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm) and ICE Futures Europe Commitments of Traders Report.
βœ… Methodology note: WTI and Brent aren't measured on a fully symmetric basis here. "WTI" is CFTC's single largest WTI contract (Physical, NYMEX) β€” the smaller ICE Europe WTI contract (OI ~770k) is tracked separately in the table below and excluded from this chart and from the "Combined WTI + Brent" figures. "Brent" is ICE's one primary Brent Crude contract (OI 3,869,160 as of Jul 21, 2026), which has no comparably-sized secondary contract to exclude. As of Jul 21, 2026 both the WTI and Brent legs of this chart are genuine confirmed Managed Money for the first time in three weeks β€” the legacy Non-Commercial substitute is no longer needed for WTI, and Brent's Long/Short split (previously estimated while carried forward) is now the actual reported figure.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jul 21, 2026 (All Rows Confirmed Managed Money) | CFTC / ICE COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) Managed Money 187,469 123,490 +63,979 +6,308 +4,303 +2,005 1,864,487 Net Long
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) Managed Money 9,126 26,334 -17,208 +4,318 -2,694 +7,012 770,415 Net Short β€” Covering
ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe) Managed Money 353,600 161,569 +192,031 n/a n/a -165,123 3,869,160 Net Long β€” Unwinding
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe, Managed Money) 196,595 149,824 +46,771 +10,626 +1,609 +9,017 β€” Net Long (both legs confirmed)
Combined WTI + Brent (All Benchmarks) β€” β€” +238,802 β€” β€” n/a (WTI methodology refined this week β€” see note) β€” Net Long β€” Brent Unwind Dominates
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: WTI Firms as Spot Price Jumps; Brent Unwinds Sharply from Record Surge

This week's CFTC Disaggregated COT report (positions as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026, released Friday July 24 and pulled directly from cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm) restores full Managed Money coverage for both WTI contracts, ending the two-week stretch where NYMEX WTI Physical had to be approximated with the broader legacy Non-Commercial category. NYMEX WTI Physical managed money held essentially steady at +63,979 contracts net long (Long 187,469 / Short 123,490), up a modest +2,005 from the prior week's Non-Commercial-based reading of +62,683 β€” consistent given the methodology switch, and confirming WTI-specific speculative length is holding firm rather than eroding.

The more notable WTI move was in ICE Europe WTI Financial: managed money shorts were covered aggressively, falling from 29,028 to 26,334 (-2,694) while longs nearly doubled from 4,808 to 9,126 (+4,318), narrowing the net short position to -17,208 contracts from -24,220 the prior week β€” a +7,012 improvement. This is the sharpest single-week de-risking of the ICE Europe WTI short base in recent months, and it lines up with the price action: EIA's WTI spot price (RWTC) jumped +$8.51/bbl to $80.77 for the week ending July 17, a move consistent with speculators unwinding bearish WTI bets into a fast-rising tape. Blending the now-fully-confirmed NYMEX and ICE Europe Managed Money readings gives a combined WTI net long of +46,771 contracts (+9,017 w/w), the first clean apples-to-apples WTI comparison in three weeks.

ICE Brent Crude's own Commitments of Traders Report (published separately by ICE Futures Europe, not CFTC) is now also confirmed for July 21, 2026, sourced directly from ICE's published Long/Short/Spreading table (Managed Money: Long 353,600 / Short 161,569 / Open Interest 3,869,160). The headline move here is the opposite of WTI: Brent managed money net long fell sharply to +192,031 contracts, down -165,123 from the record +357,154 confirmed the prior week β€” unwinding roughly two-thirds of the prior week's historic surge. Combined WTI+Brent net long is now +238,802 contracts; because the WTI leg's methodology also shifted this week (Legacy Non-Commercial β†’ Managed Money), a precise apples-to-apples w/w delta for the combined total isn't shown, but the direction is unambiguous β€” Brent's unwind outweighs WTI's improvement by a wide margin.

Context: The divergence is the story this week: WTI positioning is firming into a rising spot price (Iran-US conflict, Strait of Hormuz risk), while Brent β€” which saw the largest single-week Managed Money increase since December 2016 just one week earlier β€” gave back much of that length. This is consistent with a market that priced a large geopolitical risk premium into Brent specifically (the internationally-exposed benchmark) and is now partially unwinding that bet, while domestic WTI length continues to firm on its own more US-centric fundamentals (inventory draws, backwardation). Across the full 2021-2026 history, combined WTI+Brent managed-money net long has ranged from roughly +14k (Oct 2025 trough) to +724k (Feb 2021 peak); at +238.8k, current positioning has pulled back toward the middle of that range after briefly testing its upper half the week before.