πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: June 17, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending June 12, 2026
CFTC As-Of: June 9, 2026 (NYMEX WTI Physical + Brent Last Day confirmed; ICE Europe WTI Jun 9)
This week: US commercial crude inventories drew a further 8.3 million barrels for the week ending June 12, falling to 418.2 Mbbls β€” now roughly 4.8% below the five-year seasonal average of 439.5 mb. Refinery utilization surged to 96.7% (up 1.4 ppts), with crude inputs rising to 17.2 mb/d β€” the highest in months as summer peak demand arrives. Crude imports fell sharply by 0.75 mb/d to 5.1 mb/d and exports eased 0.51 mb/d to 4.3 mb/d. The SPR drew another 8.9 mb (to 340.3 mb total). Cushing, OK stocks fell 1.6 mb to just 20.0 mb β€” a multi-year low for the WTI pricing hub. US field production was essentially flat at ~13.8 mb/d. Inventories have now drawn roughly 47 million barrels over eight consecutive weeks since the mid-April peak of 465.7 mb β€” an intensifying bullish fundamental signal at peak summer demand.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending June 12, 2026 (Released June 17, 2026)
Crude Stocks
418.2
β–Ό -8.3 mb w/w
mln bbls | 4.8% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
20.0
β–Ό -1.6 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub | multi-yr low
US Production
13.8
β€” Unchanged w/w
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2)
Refinery Inputs
17.2
β–² +0.23 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
96.7%
β–² +1.4 ppts w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.1
β–Ό -0.75 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
4.3
β–Ό -0.51 mb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCREXUS2)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$0.76
CLN26–CLQ26
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Backwardation (Jun 17)
SPR Stocks
340.3
β–Ό -8.9 mb w/w
mln bbls | strategic reserve
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending June 12, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)17.19
Crude Exports4.33
Total Crude Disposition~21.52
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.81
Crude Imports5.13
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+1.28
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~20.72
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-8.3 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)418.2-8.3-4.8%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)20.0-1.6Multi-yr low
Motor Gasoline (Total)214.2-0.9N/A
Distillate Fuel Oil103.1+1.0N/A
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel45.0-1.1N/A
Refinery Throughput17.2 mb/d+0.23 mb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate96.7%+1.4 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: All stocks confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending June 12, 2026: crude (WCESTUS1 418.2 mb, -8.3 mb w/w), Cushing OK (20.0 mb, -1.6 mb w/w), gasoline (WGTSTUS1 214.2 mb), distillate (WDISTUS1 103.1 mb), jet fuel (WKJSTUS1 45.0 mb), SPR (WCSSTUS1 340.3 mb, -8.9 mb w/w β†’ ~1.28 mb/d release). US crude production confirmed 13.81 mb/d (WCRFPUS2). Crude exports 4.33 mb/d (WCREXUS2). 5yr avg week 25: 439.5 mb (range: 415.1–460.7 mb).
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 418.2 mb (June 12, 2026), ~4.8% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–25 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage built by +73 Bcf for the week ending June 12, 2026, reaching 2,759 Bcf β€” slightly below the five-year average injection of +78 Bcf, a modest deceleration in the refill pace. Inventories now stand 114 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average (2,645 Bcf) and 43 Bcf below year-ago levels (2,802 Bcf, June 13, 2025), as the year-on-year deficit continues to widen. Strong dry gas production (~117 Bcf/d per EIA STEO) continues alongside robust LNG exports (~17.6 Bcf/d, April 2026 avg). The 5-year average injection for the upcoming week of June 19 is +77 Bcf, which would push inventories to ~2,836 Bcf if realized.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending June 12, 2026 (Released June 18, 2026). Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R*_BCF).
Working Gas in Storage
2,759
β–² +73 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending June 12
W/W Injection
+73
β–Ό Below 5yr avg (+78 Bcf)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 2,645 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+114
β–² Above 5yr avg
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,645 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
-43
β–Ό Below year ago
Bcf vs June 13, 2025 (2,802 Bcf)
Dry Gas Production
~117
Near record high
Bcf/d (EIA STEO May 2026)
LNG Exports
~17.6
↓ from 18.1 Mar avg
Bcf/d (April 2026 avg, STEO)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Jun 19 Wk Estimate
+77
5yr avg injection
Bcf (ISO wk 25 seasonal avg)
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.61
β–Ό -$0.01 w/w
S26(Jul–Oct)–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· Winter Premium Widening
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
All 13 weeks confirmed from EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). 5-year band = actual historical high/low by ISO week (2021–2025). 2-year view: last week-ending of each month from EIA. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionJune 12 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
East532+18-10
Midwest638+28+11
Mountain226+4+46
Pacific309+5+66
South Central1,053+16-1
Total US2,759+73+114
βœ… Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 for week ending June 12, 2026. Total: 2,759 Bcf (East 532 + Midwest 638 + Mountain 226 + Pacific 309 + South Central 1,053). 5-yr avgs by ISO wk 24 (2021–2025).
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~117 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (April 2026 avg)~17.6 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.21, 2027 avg 18.61 Bcf/d
This month: Canada's most recent monthly production data (March 2026, Statistics Canada) remains the latest available, showing crude oil and equivalent production at ~5.46 mb/d (26.9 million mΒ³, +0.2% YoY) and crude exports at a record ~4.56 mb/d (22.5 million mΒ³, +4.2% YoY) β€” the highest level since the series began in 2016, supported by Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline capacity. StatsCan's April 2026 international merchandise trade release (June 9) showed total exports up 1.6% to a record $75.2B with a $2.7B trade surplus, with energy products the largest contributor to the gain (+9.7%) and crude oil contributing ~7.0% of the increase β€” pointing to continued strength in April crude volumes ahead of official production data. Canada's weekly rig count (week ending June 12, 2026) rose to 180 rigs (121 oil, 58 gas, 1 misc), up 11 from the prior week, accelerating the post-spring-breakup recovery in the Montney and oil sands plays.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (production/exports: March 2026, latest available; merchandise trade value release: April 2026, released June 9, 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending June 12, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export volume data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled.
Crude Oil Production
~5.46
β–² +0.2% YoY
mb/d | Mar 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.56
β–² Record high (+4.2% YoY)
mb/d | Mar 2026 | New series record
Rig Count (Oil)
121
β–² +6 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 12, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
58
β–² +4 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 12, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
1.76 Bcf/d
β–² Record high since LNG Canada opened
Mar 2026 Β· 57.6M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
Gas Exports to US
8.63 Bcf/d
β–Ό -10.8% YoY
Mar 2026 Β· 282.1M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$1.97
β–Ό -$0.05 w/w
Jul-26 fwd vs HH Β· 0.7071 CAD/USD Β· gasalberta.com
Canadian Crude Oil Metrics Most recent available β€” March 2026 (StatsCan, released Jun 1, 2026)
Crude Oil MetricValuePeriodNotes
Total Production (crude & equiv.)~5.46 mb/dMar 202626.9 mln mΒ³/mo (StatsCan); +0.2% YoY
Crude Oil Exports~4.56 mb/dMar 202622.5 mln mΒ³; record high since 2016; +4.2% YoY
Net Exports (prod. – dom. use est.)~4.2 mb/dMar 2026Estimate
Oil Sands Production~3.5+ mb/d2026 est.Synthetic crude -6.4% due to AB gas pipeline maintenance; bitumen +2.1%
2026 Production Forecast~5.5 mb/dFull YrCER Current Measures scenario
2030 Production Target5.8 mb/dForecastCER 2026 Energy Future report
Annual Industry Revenue$165.4B2026 est.CAPP estimate; down YoY on weaker prices
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)N/ANot confirmed from search
AER / CER Outlook (2026)
Oil Sands GrowthContinues to 2050On track
Oil Sands by 20504.1 mb/dCER Current Measures
Global Rank – Crude4th largestWorld producer
Global Rank – Nat Gas5th largestWorld producer
Trans Mountain ExpansionOperationalActive
Western Canada Natural Gas Storage Billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Seasonal comparison 2024–2026
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America saw a net +10 rigs week-over-week for the week ending June 12, with Canada adding 11 rigs to 180 while the US eased by 1 to 562, for a combined count of 742. Canada's post-spring-breakup recovery is accelerating, adding 11 rigs across the Montney, Duvernay, and oil sands plays β€” now up from a seasonal low and closing in on typical June levels. In the US, oil rigs added 2 w/w to 433 and gas rigs eased by 3 to 121, with the Permian down 1 to 256. US production at 13.8 mb/d remains near record highs, underscoring continued efficiency gains despite a flat-to-lower rig count. The Permian Basin's 256 active rigs remains the dominant basin.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending June 12, 2026 (Released June 12, 2026)
US Total Rigs
562
β–Ό -1 w/w
vs prior week 563
US Oil Rigs
433
β–² +2 w/w
Primary oil-directed
US Gas Rigs
121
β–Ό -3 w/w
Natural gas-directed
Gulf of Mexico
6
β–Ό -2 w/w
Offshore rigs
Canada Total
180
β–² +11 w/w
Post-breakup recovery
Canada Oil Rigs
121
β–² +6 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
58
β–² +4 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
742
β–² +10 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs433+2439
  Gas Rigs121-3113
  Gulf of Mexico6-29
  Geothermal803
Major Basins (US)
  Permian256-1273
  Haynesville55035
  Eagle Ford44040
  Williston28031
  US Total562-1555
Canada
  Oil Rigs121+691
  Gas Rigs58+447
  Canada Total180+11138
North America Total742+10693
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending June 12, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: CFTC's June 9, 2026 Disaggregated COT report confirmed all three contracts for the first time in several weeks. NYMEX WTI Physical managed money longs eased to 213,483 (-5,304 w/w) and shorts fell further to 118,758 (-9,264 w/w), lifting the net long to +94,725 contracts (from +90,765). ICE Europe WTI held a net short of -27,568 contracts (-874 w/w), as shorts rose to 33,439 while longs eased to 5,871. Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long rose to +67,157 contracts, up from +64,071 the prior week. Brent Last Day (NYMEX) net long firmed to +7,755 contracts (+956 w/w). Including Brent, total net long exposure across all three contracts stands at approximately +74.9k contracts. The NYMEX WTI Long/Short ratio is 1.80x.
πŸ“‹ Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders β€” Managed Money Category. All positions confirmed as of June 9, 2026 (released June 13, 2026). No carried-forward values this week. Note: CFTC reports Tuesday positions; released following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
+67.2k
contracts (net long)
Up from +64.1k β€” as of Jun 9, 2026
Brent Net Long (Last Day NYMEX)
+7.8k
contracts (net long)
Up from +6.8k β€” as of Jun 9, 2026
Combined WTI + Brent
+74.9k
contracts
Up from +70.9k β€” all contracts confirmed
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.80x
longs vs shorts
L 213k vs S 119k (Jun 9, 2026)
Market Signal
πŸ“ˆ Net Long β€” Steady
NYMEX adds length, ICE Europe stays net short
Combined net long firms modestly
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Jun 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. Confirmed as of Jun 9, 2026 (all contracts): WTI Physical (NYMEX) Long 213.5k, Short 118.8k, Net +94.7k. ICE Europe WTI Long 5.9k, Short 33.4k, Net -27.6k. Brent Last Day (NYMEX) Long 10.6k, Short 2.8k, Net +7.8k. Combined WTI (NYMEX+ICE) Net +67.2k. Pre-2026 history approximated from CFTC/EIA public trend data. Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jun 9, 2026 (All Contracts Confirmed) | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) 213,483 118,758 +94,725 -5,304 -9,264 +3,960 2,006,635 Net Long
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) 5,871 33,439 -27,568 -167 +707 -874 818,492 Bearish
Brent Last Day (NYMEX) 10,586 2,831 +7,755 +370 -586 +956 251,441 Net Long
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) 219,354 152,197 +67,157 β€” β€” +3,086 β€” Net Long
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Net Long, Holding Steady (All Contracts Confirmed)

As of June 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI Physical managed money positioning eased on both sides of the book β€” longs fell to 213,483 (-5,304 w/w) and shorts fell further to 118,758 (-9,264 w/w) β€” lifting the net long to +94,725 contracts (from +90,765), an improvement of +3,960 contracts driven by faster short-covering than long liquidation. This represents approximately 10.6% of total open interest on the long side vs. 5.9% on the short side.

ICE Europe WTI remained net short, widening modestly to -27,568 contracts (from -26,694, a change of -874) as shorts rose to 33,439 (+707 w/w) while longs eased to 5,871 (-167 w/w). Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long rose to +67,157 contracts, up from +64,071 the prior week, a gain of +3,086.

Brent Last Day (NYMEX) firmed to net long +7,755 contracts (+956 w/w), as longs rose to 10,586 (+370) and shorts eased to 2,831 (-586). Including Brent, combined net long exposure across all three contracts stands at approximately +74.9k contracts, up from +70.9k the prior week.

Context: The modest build in NYMEX net length came alongside a sizable drawdown in US commercial crude inventories (-8.3 mb to 418.2 mb, now 4.8% below the 5-yr seasonal average), firm refinery utilization (96.7%), and continued SPR releases. With managed money net long across all three contracts and the NYMEX long/short ratio holding at 1.80x, positioning remains moderately constructive but well short of the extreme bullish conviction (3-4x ratios) seen in 2023-24. The persistent ICE Europe net short β€” now in its fourth consecutive confirmed week β€” continues to reflect a structural Brent-WTI spread trade rather than outright bearish conviction on crude.