πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: September 25, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending September 18, 2026 (EIA WPSR/WNGSR)
CFTC As-Of: September 22, 2026 (WTI legs confirmed β€” see Positioning tab)
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending September 18, 2026 (Released September 23, 2026, on normal Wednesday schedule). All KPIs below independently confirmed directly via the EIA API v2 (seriesid endpoints) this run, and cross-validated against Rigzone/InvestingLive coverage of the same WPSR release (crude build, Cushing build, and 5-yr-avg percentages all matched: +3.0 mb crude build to 426.4 mb (+2% vs 5yr avg), gasoline -1.7 mb (-6% vs 5yr avg), distillate -0.4 mb (-12% vs 5yr avg)). No re-benchmarking adjustment this week β€” production essentially flat w/w (13.939 vs 13.944 mb/d).
Crude Stocks
426.4
β–² +3.0 mb w/w
mln bbls | ~2% above 5yr avg (EIA)
Cushing, OK
23.7
β–² +2.3 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub
US Production
13.94
β—† -0.01 mb/d w/w (flat)
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2; no re-benchmark this wk)
Refinery Inputs
16.81
β–Ό -0.52 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
94.0%
β–Ό -2.8 ppt w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.88
β–Ό -1.18 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
3.28
β–Ό -1.55 mb/d w/w
mb/d (confirmed via EIA API v2 + press coverage)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$3.60
confirmed via CME Globex, Sep 25
M1–M2 $/bbl (Nov26 $92.44 – Dec26 $88.84) Β· live CME Globex quotes
SPR Stocks
284.6
β–Ό -0.4 mb w/w
mln bbls | fresh multi-decade low continues
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending September 18, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)16.81
Crude Exports3.28
Total Crude Disposition~20.09
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.94
Crude Imports5.88
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+0.41
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~20.73
Net Implied Balance (Actual EIA Stock Chg.)+3.0 mb (build)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)426.4+3.0+2.0%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)23.7+2.3β€”
Motor Gasoline (Total)206.0-1.7-5.7%
Distillate Fuel Oil107.4-0.4-12.3%
Propane/Propylene107.9-1.2+20.0%
Refinery Throughput16.81 mb/d-0.52β€”
Utilization Rate94.0%-2.8 pptβ€”
βœ… Confirmed via EIA API v2 (WPSR week ending September 18, 2026), cross-validated against Rigzone/InvestingLive coverage of the same release. Gasoline, distillate, and propane/propylene stocks above confirmed via the same source. WTI Prompt Spread freshly confirmed via live CME Globex quotes: +$3.60/bbl (Nov26–Dec26, Sep 25, 2026).
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 426.4 mb (September 18, 2026), ~2% above the 5-yr seasonal average per EIA published figure. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–38 confirmed from EIA WPSR. Source: EIA WPSR.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending September 18, 2026 (Released September 24, 2026, on schedule). National total confirmed via EIA API v2; full regional breakdown (East/Midwest/Mountain/Pacific/South Central, incl. South Central salt/nonsalt split) confirmed via IndexBox's direct republication of the EIA report text, and reconciles exactly to the API total (3,351 Bcf). 5-yr average (3,256 Bcf) and year-ago comparison as published by EIA. HH Summer–Winter spread freshly confirmed via live CME Globex quotes this run (-$0.21/MMBtu, Oct26 vs Nov26-Mar27, Sep 25, 2026), narrowed from the prior -$0.42 figure as the summer strip rolled down to a single remaining month (Oct26). Storage chart y-axis continues to auto-scale to the plotted data range in both the 12-week and 2-year views, so no series is clipped.
Working Gas in Storage
3,351
β–² +53 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending Sep 18
W/W Injection
+53
Implied flow +53 Bcf (EIA)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 3,256 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+95
β–Ό Surplus narrowed w/w (was +118)
Bcf above 5yr avg (3,256 Bcf, EIA)
vs Year Ago
-146
Deficit widened further this week
Bcf vs Sep 19, 2025 (EIA)
Dry Gas Production
~111
Near record high (carried forward, 10 wks stale)
Bcf/d (EIA STEO Jun 2026 est., carried forward)
LNG Exports
~17.2
2026 annual avg (carried forward, 10 wks stale)
Bcf/d (2026 avg, EIA STEO Jun 2026)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Regional Detail
5/5
All regions confirmed via EIA report text
East/Midwest/Mtn/Pacific/S.Central β€” EIA
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.21
confirmed via CME Globex, Sep 25
O26(Oct)–W26/27(Nov-Mar) $/MMBtu Β· live CME Globex quotes
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
Most recent confirmed national total: 3,351 Bcf (September 18, 2026), confirmed via EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. 5-yr avg (3,256 Bcf) as published by EIA. 2-year view: last week-ending of each month β€” September 2026 has not completed yet, so not appended this run. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionSep 18 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
East815+20+5.2%
Midwest959+25+3.5%
Mountain244+3+7.0%
Pacific292+3+9.8%
South Central1,041+2-1.7%
Total US3,351+53+95
βœ… National total (3,351 Bcf, +53 Bcf w/w) confirmed via EIA API v2; full regional breakdown confirmed via IndexBox's direct republication of the EIA report text, reconciling exactly to the API total. Within South Central, salt storage fell 5 Bcf to 217 Bcf (-12.5% vs 5yr avg) while nonsalt storage rose 8 Bcf to 825 Bcf (+1.7% vs 5yr avg); South Central overall ran -12.4% below year-ago and -1.7% vs 5yr avg.
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~111 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (2026 avg, STEO Jun, carried forward)~17.2 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026 (carried forward)
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.2, 2027 avg 18.6 Bcf/d
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (crude/exports: June 2026, Table 25-10-0063-01, unchanged this run; natural gas storage: July 2026, Table 25-10-0086-01, newly released Sep 23, 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (week ending September 25, 2026) Β· AESO Connection Project List (September 2026, reconfirmed unchanged) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· AECO Fwd Basis via gasalberta.com's AECO C Futures Pricing chart (carried forward this run β€” see disclaimer). Canadian production/export data is monthly β€” periods labeled below.
Crude Oil Production
~5.37
β–² +3.1% YoY (prior month)
mb/d | June 2026 (monthly, StatsCan, unchanged)
Crude Exports
~4.35
β–² +6.4% YoY (June 2026, unchanged)
mb/d | June 2026 StatsCan release (reconfirmed)
Rig Count (Oil)
145
β–² +11 w/w (confirmed)
rigs | Week Ending September 25, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
62
β—† flat w/w (confirmed)
rigs | Week Ending September 25, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
~1.84 Bcf/d
June 2026 level, unchanged this run
June 2026 Β· 58.3M GJ Β· StatsCan Aug 31, 2026
Gas Exports to US
~7.89 Bcf/d
β–Ό -7.9% YoY (June 2026, unchanged)
June 2026 Β· 250.2M GJ Β· StatsCan Aug 31, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$1.74
carried forward β€” gasalberta.com access unavailable this run
Oct-26 AECO fwd ($1.46 CAD/GJ) vs Oct-26 HH ($2.838) Β· as of Sep 21, 2026 (4 days stale)
Canadian Natural Gas & Large Load Tracker Natural gas: July 2026 storage / June 2026 production (StatsCan) | Large load: AESO Connection List, Sep 2026
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~22.1 Bcf/dJune 2026, StatsCan (unchanged this run, +7.9% YoY)
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada, AB+BC)~651 BcfEnd-Jul 2026; StatCan Table 25-10-0086 (newly released)
AECO Fwd Price$1.46 CAD/GJOct-26 fwd Β· gasalberta.com chart (pixel-read)
Alberta Large Load (Data Centre) Tracker
Requested (Data Load projects)21,310 MW42 projects
Phase 1 Allocated1,200 MWFully allocated
Remaining in Queue (est.)~20,110 MW~94% of requested
Stage 1 (Early Study)7,676 MW16 projects
Stage 2 (Advanced Study)13,634 MW26 projects
Large Load Connection Queue & Natural Gas Storage AESO Connection Project List Sep 2026 Β· StatCan Western Canada Gas Storage
Data Load Connection Queue β€” Requests to Study Stage
LARGE LOAD REQUESTS 21.3 GW 42 projects Β· AESO Connection List, Sep 2026 1.2 GW Phase 1 Β· fully allocated STILL IN QUEUE 20.1 GW ~94% of requested Β· 42 projects 7.7 GW Stage 1 Β· 16 projects 13.6 GW Stage 2 Β· 26 projects
Source: AESO Connection Project List, September 2026 (aeso.ca/grid/transmission-projects/connection-project-reporting), filtered to MW Type = "Data Load". Full project-level detail: AESO Connection Project Dashboard.
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0086-01 (closing inventory, Alberta + British Columbia, converted GJβ†’Bcf), current through July 2026 (newly released September 23, 2026). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal high/low range by calendar month (2021–2025).
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending September 25, 2026 (released September 25, 2026). The local Rig Counts sync folder still only held the September 11 workbook, so this week's workbook was downloaded directly from rigcount.bakerhughes.com's own static-file link and parsed in full (NAM Summary + NAM Breakdown sheets) β€” every figure below, including Gulf of Mexico and the Canada oil/gas sub-split, is freshly confirmed this run, none carried forward. The workbook's own "Last Week" column (595 US total / 452 oil / 134 gas / 197 Canada total / 134 oil / 62 gas) matches exactly what was published in last week's (September 18) dashboard β€” no stale-data discrepancy found this run.
US Total Rigs
599
β–² +4 w/w
Week Ending Sep 25 | third straight weekly gain
US Oil Rigs
455
β–² +3 w/w
Highest since late August
US Gas Rigs
135
β–² +1 w/w
Highest since late August
Gulf of Mexico
6
β–² +1 w/w (confirmed, offshore GoM)
Misc./drilling-type category (national): 9, flat w/w
Canada Total
208
β–² +11 w/w (confirmed)
Week Ending Sep 25, 2026
Canada Oil Rigs
145
β–² +11 w/w (confirmed)
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
62
β—† flat w/w (confirmed)
Gas-directed
NA Total
807
β–² +15 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs455+3+31
  Gas Rigs135+1+18
  Gulf of Mexico (offshore)6+1-3
Major Basins (US)
  Permian270+1+17
  Haynesville560+17
  Eagle Ford50-1+5
  Williston350+6
  US Total599+4+50 (+9%)
Canada
  Oil Rigs145+11+16
  Gas Rigs620+2
  Misc100
  Canada Total208+11+18
North America Total807+15+68
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending September 25, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
πŸ“‹ Data: NYMEX WTI Physical and WTI Financial (ICE Europe) β€” both genuine Managed Money, confirmed as of September 22, 2026, pulled directly from cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm (released September 25, 2026; `curl -I` Last-Modified header showed 19:27:19 GMT β‰ˆ 3:27 PM ET, right on the normal Friday release window). ICE Brent Crude financial positioning remains removed from this tab (per the September 4, 2026 structural change) β€” this page tracks WTI-only Managed Money positioning (NYMEX Physical + ICE Europe Financial). CFTC reports Tuesday positions, released the following Friday.
NYMEX WTI Physical Net
+101.8k
contracts (net long; confirmed Sep 22)
β–Ό -4.5k w/w β€” narrowed via short-building, not long liquidation
ICE Europe WTI Financial Net
-4.8k
contracts (net short; confirmed Sep 22)
β–² +5.2k w/w β€” net short narrowed sharply via short-covering
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe)
+97.0k
contracts (net long; both legs confirmed Sep 22)
β–² +0.7k w/w β€” roughly flat as legs moved in opposite directions
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.84x
longs vs shorts (Managed Money)
L 223k vs S 121k (Sep 22, 2026)
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Sep 2026
Weekly. EIA series RWTC (Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB, US$/bbl). Each point is the week-ending Friday price preceding the corresponding CFTC report date. Shares the x-axis of the positioning chart above.
WTI Short WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. WTI Physical from CFTC Disaggregated COT (NYMEX; managed money) β€” confirmed genuine Managed Money through Sep 22, 2026 (Long 223.2k / Short 121.4k / Net +101.8k), down from +106.3k the prior week. Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT (publicreporting.cftc.gov, cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_sf.htm). ICE Brent Crude financial positioning remains removed from this chart and this tab β€” the historical brentL/brentS series is not plotted or tracked.
βœ… Methodology note: This chart plots WTI Physical (NYMEX) Managed Money β€” CFTC's single largest WTI contract β€” as the stacked Long/Short area with a Net line overlay. The smaller ICE Europe WTI Financial contract (OI 734.3k) is tracked separately in the KPI cards and the detailed positions table below, and combined into the "Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe)" figures, but is not separately plotted on this chart. ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report, published separately from CFTC) remains removed from this dashboard.
Detailed Positions Table As of Sep 22, 2026 | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) Managed Money 223,190 121,362 +101,828 +1,294 +5,745 -4,451 1,841,811 Net Long β€” Narrowing (Short-Led)
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) Managed Money 20,197 25,031 -4,834 +2 -5,186 +5,188 734,302 Net Short β€” Narrowing (Short-Covering)
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe, Managed Money) 243,387 146,393 +96,994 +1,296 +559 +737 β€” Net Long β€” Roughly Flat (Legs Diverged)