πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: June 3, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending May 29, 2026
CFTC As-Of: May 26, 2026 (released May 30)
This week: US commercial crude inventories drew 8.0 million barrels for the week ending May 29, falling to 433.7 Mbbls β€” now roughly 1.9% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization held strong at 94.7% (up 0.2 ppts), with crude inputs rising to 16.9 mb/d as summer driving demand ramps up. Both crude imports (+1.19 mb/d to 6.4 mb/d) and exports (+1.43 mb/d to 5.9 mb/d) surged on the week, reflecting elevated two-way flow. The SPR drew 8.0 mb (-357.1 mb total), suggesting continued strategic releases. US field production remained steady at ~13.7 mb/d. Inventories have trended sharply lower since the mid-April peak of 465.7 mb, drawing roughly 32 million barrels over six weeks β€” a bullish fundamental signal heading into summer peak demand.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending May 29, 2026 (Released June 3, 2026)
Crude Stocks
433.7
β–Ό -8.0 mb w/w
mln bbls | 1.9% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
30.6
β€” (prior week)
mln bbls WTI hub
US Production
13.7
β‰ˆ flat w/w
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2)
Refinery Inputs
16.9
β–Ό -90 kb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
94.7%
β–² +0.2 ppts w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
6.4
β–² +1.19 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
5.9
β–² +1.43 mb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCREXUS2)
LNG Exports
~18.0
Near record
Bcf/d (prior week est.)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$2.71
β€” (prior week)
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Backwardation
SPR Stocks
357.1
β–Ό -8.0 mb w/w
mln bbls | strategic reserve
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending May 29, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)16.88
Crude Exports5.87
Total Crude Disposition~22.75
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.71
Crude Imports6.40
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+1.14
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~21.75
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-8.0 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)433.7-8.0-1.9%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)30.6(prior wk)β€”
Motor Gasoline (Total)215.0+3.4N/A
Distillate Fuel Oil102.3+1.5N/A
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel45.4+0.4N/A
Refinery Throughput16.9 mb/d-90 kb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate94.7%+0.2 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: All stocks confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending May 29, 2026: crude (WCESTUS1 433.7 mb, -8.0 mb w/w), gasoline (WGTSTUS1 215.0 mb), distillate (WDISTUS1 102.3 mb), jet fuel (WKJSTUS1 45.4 mb), SPR (WCSSTUS1 357.1 mb, -8.0 mb w/w β†’ ~1.14 mb/d release). US crude production confirmed 13.71 mb/d (WCRFPUS2). Crude exports 5.87 mb/d (WCREXUS2). 5yr avg week 22: 442.0 mb.
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 433.7 mb (May 29, 2026), ~1.9% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–22 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage surged by +103 Bcf for the week ending April 17, reaching 2,063 Bcf β€” far above the prior-year injection of +77 Bcf and the five-year average of +64 Bcf for the same week. The robust build widened the year-on-year surplus to 142 Bcf and pushed inventories roughly 137 Bcf above the five-year average, reflecting strong dry gas production (~106 Bcf/d) combined with mild spring temperatures suppressing heating demand. LNG exports continue to run near record levels at ~18 Bcf/d β€” providing a structural demand floor β€” but storage refill is tracking well ahead of seasonal norms. NGI forecasts another +73 Bcf injection for the week ending April 24, which would trim the year-on-year surplus modestly to ~110 Bcf.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending April 17, 2026 (Released April 23, 2026). Forecast for April 24 per NGI.
Working Gas in Storage
2,063
β–² +103 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending Apr 17
W/W Injection
+103
β–² Above 5yr avg (+64 Bcf)
Bcf | vs prior yr: +77 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+137
β–² Surplus widening
Bcf above 5yr avg (~1,926 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
+142
YoY surplus
Bcf above Apr 17, 2025
Dry Gas Production
~106
Near record high
Bcf/d (est. from STEO)
LNG Exports
~18.0
Near record
Bcf/d (March 2026 avg)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Apr 24 Forecast
+73
NGI Estimate
Bcf injection expected
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.63
β–² +$0.04 w/w
S26–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· Winter Premium Easing
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
Confirmed: Apr 10 (1,970 Bcf), Apr 17 (2,063 Bcf). Earlier 2026 weeks estimated from EIA w/w changes. 2-year view uses EIA historical data. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionApr 17 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
EastN/Aβ€”β€”
MidwestN/Aβ€”β€”
MountainN/Aβ€”β€”
PacificN/Aβ€”β€”
South CentralN/Aβ€”β€”
Total US2,063+103+137
⚠️ Regional breakdown unavailable from web search for Apr 17. Only total US confirmed. Full regional detail available at eia.gov/naturalgas/storage.
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~106 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (March 2026 avg)~18.0 Bcf/d
LNG Capacity UtilizationNear peak
LNG Import TerminalsMinimal / idle
Pipeline Exports to MexicoN/A this week
This month: Canada's most recent monthly data (March 2026, Statistics Canada, released June 1, 2026) showed crude oil and equivalent production edging up 0.2% year-over-year to ~5.46 mb/d (26.9 million mΒ³), while crude exports hit a new record high of ~4.56 mb/d (22.5 million mΒ³) β€” the highest level since the series began in 2016, supported by Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline capacity. The weekly rig count for Canada surged to 162 rigs (week ending May 29), up 24 from the prior week and reflecting post-spring-breakup activity recovery in the Montney and oil sands plays. Oil sands non-conventional production saw a temporary dip in March due to maintenance on Alberta's gas pipeline system, while crude bitumen production rose 2.1%.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (March 2026, released June 1, 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week May 29, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled.
Crude Oil Production
~5.46
β–² +0.2% YoY
mb/d | Mar 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.56
β–² Record high (+4.2% YoY)
mb/d | Mar 2026 | New series record
Rig Count (Oil)
109
β–² +22 w/w
rigs | Week May 29, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
53
β–² +5 w/w
rigs | Week May 29, 2026
2026 Revenue Est.
$165.4B
β–Ό YoY (weaker prices)
CAD | CAPP 2026 est.
LNG Canada Status
Active
Operational Jul 2025
Kitimat, BC export terminal
AECO Fwd Basis
N/A
β€” w/w
vs HH $/MMBtu Β· NGX feed pending
Canadian Crude Oil Metrics Most recent available β€” March 2026 (StatsCan, released Jun 1, 2026)
Crude Oil MetricValuePeriodNotes
Total Production (crude & equiv.)~5.46 mb/dMar 202626.9 mln mΒ³/mo (StatsCan); +0.2% YoY
Crude Oil Exports~4.56 mb/dMar 202622.5 mln mΒ³; record high since 2016; +4.2% YoY
Net Exports (prod. – dom. use est.)~4.2 mb/dMar 2026Estimate
Oil Sands Production~3.5+ mb/d2026 est.Synthetic crude -6.4% due to AB gas pipeline maintenance; bitumen +2.1%
2026 Production Forecast~5.5 mb/dFull YrCER Current Measures scenario
2030 Production Target5.8 mb/dForecastCER 2026 Energy Future report
Annual Industry Revenue$165.4B2026 est.CAPP estimate; down YoY on weaker prices
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)N/ANot confirmed from search
AER / CER Outlook (2026)
Oil Sands GrowthContinues to 2050On track
Oil Sands by 20504.1 mb/dCER Current Measures
Global Rank – Crude4th largestWorld producer
Global Rank – Nat Gas5th largestWorld producer
Trans Mountain ExpansionOperationalActive
Western Canada Natural Gas Storage Billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Seasonal comparison 2024–2026
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America added 28 rigs week-over-week for the week ending May 29, bringing the US total to 562 and Canada to 162 for a combined count of 724. Canada led the surge, adding 24 rigs week-over-week as post-spring-breakup activity resumes across the Montney, Duvernay, and oil sands plays β€” Canada's seasonal recovery typically accelerates in late May through June. In the US, oil rigs added 4 w/w to 429, while gas rigs declined modestly to 125. US production at 13.7 mb/d remains near record highs, underscoring continued efficiency gains. Canada's rig count at 162 is up significantly from the 130 range seen in late April, with oil rigs (109) and gas rigs (53) both recovering strongly.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending May 29, 2026 (Released May 30, 2026)
US Total Rigs
562
β–² +4 w/w
vs prior week 558
US Oil Rigs
429
β–² +4 w/w
Primary oil-directed
US Gas Rigs
125
β‰ˆ flat w/w
Natural gas-directed
US Misc Rigs
8
Unchanged
Miscellaneous
Canada Total
162
β–² +24 w/w
Post-breakup recovery
Canada Oil Rigs
109
β–² +22 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
53
β–² +5 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
724
β–² +28 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States
  Oil Rigs429+4est.
  Gas Rigs125β‰ˆ flatest.
  Misc Rigs80β€”
   Landβ€”β€”β€”
   Offshoreβ€”β€”β€”
   Inland Waterβ€”β€”β€”
  US Total562+4est.
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Canada
  Oil Rigs109+22β€”
  Gas Rigs53+5β€”
  Canada Total162+24β€”
North America Total724+28est.
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending May 29, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: Managed money traders staged a historic reversal in WTI crude oil positioning as of May 26. NYMEX WTI managed money swung from deeply net-short to net long for the first time in months β€” longs surged to 200,581 contracts vs. shorts at 120,657, a net of +79,924 contracts. This represents a reversal of approximately +333,000 contracts since the April 14 extreme (which stood at -253,502 net). Combined with ICE WTI, total managed money net stands at +49,066 contracts. The dramatic short-covering came as crude fundamentals improved β€” commercial inventories have drawn ~32 mb since mid-April, refinery utilization hit 94.7%, and the OPEC+ supply trajectory remained supportive. The Long/Short ratio on NYMEX WTI now stands at 1.66x, a complete reversal from the 0.29x extreme seen in April. Brent Last Day (NYMEX) also flipped net long to +9,568 contracts.
πŸ“‹ Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders β€” Managed Money Category β€” Positions as of May 26, 2026 (released May 30, 2026). Note: CFTC reports Tuesday positions; released following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
+49k
contracts (net long)
Historic reversal from -263k
Brent Net Long (Last Day NYMEX)
+9.6k
contracts (net long)
Net long confirmed
Combined WTI + Brent (Est.)
~+60k
contracts (est.)
Net long β€” bullish reversal
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.66x
longs vs shorts
L 201k vs S 121k
Market Signal
πŸ“ˆ Bullish Reversal
Massive short-covering complete
Net long for first time in months
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – May 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. Confirmed (May 26, 2026): WTI NYMEX Long 201k, WTI NYMEX Short -121k, Net +80k; Combined WTI (NYMEX+ICE) Net +49k; Brent Last Day NYMEX Net +10k. Brent ICE Europe and pre-2026 history approximated from CFTC/EIA public trend data. Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT.
Detailed Positions Table As of May 26, 2026 | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) 200,581 120,657 +79,924 -6,984 +11,311 -18,295 2,003,795 Net Long
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) 5,081 35,939 -30,858 +562 -3,457 +4,019 830,992 Bearish
Brent Last Day (NYMEX) 14,232 4,664 +9,568 -2,716 +646 -3,362 249,447 Net Long
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) 205,662 156,596 +49,066 β€” β€” β€” β€” Net Long β€” Bullish
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Bullish Reversal β€” Net Long (Historic Short-Covering)

As of May 26, 2026, managed money traders have completed a historic reversal in WTI crude oil positioning. The NYMEX WTI physical contract now shows 200,581 long contracts versus 120,657 short contracts β€” a net of +79,924 contracts (net long). This represents approximately 10.0% of total open interest on the long side vs. 6.0% on the short side β€” a complete reversal from April's extreme of 31.1% short vs. 5.3% long.

The week-on-week data shows longs declined modestly (-6,984) while shorts increased (+11,311), trimming the net by 18,295 contracts β€” suggesting some profit-taking after the aggressive short-covering that occurred in prior weeks. Combined net went from approximately -263k in mid-April to +79k by May 26 β€” a swing of over +333,000 contracts, one of the largest positioning reversals on record in WTI.

The ICE WTI Financial (Europe) contract remains net short at -30,858 contracts (OI 830,992), somewhat offsetting NYMEX longs. Combined WTI exposure (NYMEX + ICE) stands at +49,066 net contracts. Brent Last Day (NYMEX) is also net long at +9,568 contracts.

Context: The reversal was driven by improving crude fundamentals (significant inventory draws since April peak), recovering refinery utilization (94.7%), strong export demand, and SPR release dynamics. With managed money now net long, the market's coiled-spring risk has shifted: a bearish catalyst (demand shock, OPEC+ supply surge) could now trigger long liquidation rather than short-covering. Monitor net positions closely for any reversal of the recovery.

Data Sources
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) Β· EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Β· CFTC Commitments of Traders Β· Baker Hughes North America Rig Count Β· Statistics Canada Energy Statistics Β· CAPP Data Centre Β· Canada Energy Regulator (CER) Β· EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2026)

Disclaimer: Generated automatically by scheduled task on June 3, 2026. Some data points marked as estimates (est.) or not available (N/A) where exact weekly figures could not be confirmed from public web sources. Always verify against primary sources before trading or investment decisions. Kaibur Consulting β€” Internal Use Only.