πŸ›’οΈ North America Oil & Gas Weekly Briefing

Supply / Demand Fundamentals Β· CFTC Positioning Β· Rig Activity
Report Generated: July 1, 2026
Primary Data Week: Week Ending June 26, 2026
CFTC As-Of: June 23, 2026 (NYMEX WTI Physical + Brent Last Day + ICE Europe WTI confirmed)
This week: US commercial crude inventories drew a further 3.8 million barrels for the week ending June 26, falling to 408.4 Mbbls β€” now roughly 6.3% below the five-year seasonal average of 435.9 mb. Refinery utilization firmed to 96.6% (+0.5 ppts), with crude inputs edging higher to 17.2 mb/d. Crude imports fell 0.29 mb/d to 5.3 mb/d and exports fell 0.66 mb/d to 4.0 mb/d. The SPR drew a further 5.5 mb (to 325.7 mb total), continuing the steady drawdown of the strategic reserve. Cushing, OK stocks rebuilt 0.7 mb to 19.7 mb, off the multi-year low set the prior week. US field production held essentially flat at 13.8 mb/d. Inventories have now drawn roughly 57 million barrels over ten consecutive weeks since the mid-April peak of 465.7 mb β€” the bullish fundamental draw pattern continues into peak summer demand, though at a more moderate weekly pace than the prior week.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report β€” Week Ending June 26, 2026 (Released July 1, 2026)
Crude Stocks
408.4
β–Ό -3.8 mb w/w
mln bbls | 6.3% below 5yr avg
Cushing, OK
19.7
β–² +0.7 mb w/w
mln bbls WTI hub | off multi-yr low
US Production
13.8
β€” Flat w/w (-0.01 mb/d)
mb/d (EIA WCRFPUS2)
Refinery Inputs
17.2
β–² +0.09 mb/d w/w
mb/d crude throughput
Utilization Rate
96.6%
β–² +0.5 ppts w/w
% operable capacity
Crude Imports
5.3
β–Ό -0.29 mb/d w/w
mb/d
Crude Exports
4.0
β–Ό -0.66 mb/d w/w
mb/d (EIA WCREXUS2)
WTI Prompt Spread
+$0.06
CLQ26–CLU26
M1–M2 $/bbl Β· Backwardation (Jul 1)
SPR Stocks
325.7
β–Ό -5.5 mb w/w
mln bbls | strategic reserve
Supply / Demand Balance Week Ending June 26, 2026 | mb/d
DEMAND (Disposition)
Refinery Throughput (Crude Inputs)17.20
Crude Exports4.01
Total Crude Disposition~21.21
SUPPLY
US Field Production13.81
Crude Imports5.28
SPR Release (WCSSTUS1 draw)+0.79
Condensate & NGL (est.)~0.50
Total Supply~20.38
Net Implied Balance (Supply – Demand)-3.8 mb (draw)
Product StocksCurrent (mb)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
Crude Oil (excl. SPR)408.4-3.8-6.3%
Cushing, OK (WTI hub)19.7+0.7Off multi-yr low
Motor Gasoline (Total)214.0-2.3N/A
Distillate Fuel Oil108.6+2.5N/A
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel48.0+1.7N/A
Refinery Throughput17.2 mb/d+0.09 mb/dβ€”
Utilization Rate96.6%+0.5 pptsβ€”
βœ… Note: All stocks confirmed from EIA API v2 for week ending June 26, 2026: crude (WCESTUS1 408.4 mb, -3.8 mb w/w), Cushing OK (W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK 19.7 mb, +0.7 mb w/w), gasoline (WGTSTUS1 214.0 mb, -2.3 mb), distillate (WDISTUS1 108.6 mb, +2.5 mb), jet fuel (WKJSTUS1 48.0 mb, +1.7 mb), SPR (WCSSTUS1 325.7 mb, -5.5 mb w/w β†’ ~0.79 mb/d release). US crude production confirmed 13.81 mb/d (WCRFPUS2). Crude exports 4.01 mb/d (WCREXUS2). Refinery inputs 17.20 mb/d (WCRRIUS2). 5yr avg week 26: 435.9 mb (range: 419.0–452.2 mb).
Crude Oil Commercial Inventory Trend Million Barrels | Recent Weeks
US Commercial Crude Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Most recent confirmed: 408.4 mb (June 26, 2026), ~6.3% below 5-yr seasonal average. Shaded band = actual 5-yr seasonal min/max envelope (weekly high/low, 2021–2025). Weeks 1–16 from prior reporting; weeks 17–26 confirmed from EIA WCESTUS1 API. Source: EIA WPSR.
This week: US working gas in storage built by +76 Bcf for the week ending June 19, 2026, reaching 2,835 Bcf β€” slightly below the five-year average injection of +78 Bcf, a modest deceleration in the refill pace. Inventories now stand 112 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average (2,723 Bcf) and 63 Bcf below year-ago levels (2,898 Bcf, June 20, 2025), as the year-on-year deficit continues to widen. Strong dry gas production (~119 Bcf/d per EIA STEO Jun 2026) continues alongside robust LNG exports (~17.0 Bcf/d, 2026 avg per STEO). The 5-year average injection for the upcoming week of June 26 is +48 Bcf, which would push inventories to ~2,883 Bcf if realized.
πŸ“‹ Data: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report β€” Week Ending June 19, 2026 (Released June 25, 2026). Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R*_BCF).
Working Gas in Storage
2,835
β–² +76 Bcf w/w
Bcf | Week ending June 19
W/W Injection
+76
β–Ό Below 5yr avg (+78 Bcf)
Bcf | 5yr avg level: 2,723 Bcf
vs 5-Year Average
+112
β–² Above 5yr avg
Bcf above 5yr avg (2,723 Bcf)
vs Year Ago
-63
β–Ό Below year ago
Bcf vs June 20, 2025 (2,898 Bcf)
Dry Gas Production
~119
Near record high
Bcf/d (EIA STEO Jun 2026)
LNG Exports
~17.0
2026 annual avg
Bcf/d (2026 avg, EIA STEO Jun 2026)
Season Start Storage
1,829
Injection season
Bcf (late March 2026)
Jun 26 Wk Estimate
+48
5yr avg injection
Bcf (ISO wk 26 seasonal avg)
HH Summer–Winter
-$0.56
β–² +$0.05 w/w
S26(Jul-Oct)–W26/27 $/MMBtu Β· Easing
Storage Trend & Regional Breakdown
US Natural Gas Storage ~12 Weeks
All 13 weeks confirmed from EIA API v2 (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). Most recent: 2,835 Bcf (June 19, 2026). 5-year band = actual historical high/low by ISO week (2021–2025). 2-year view: last week-ending of each month from EIA. Source: EIA WNGSR.
Storage RegionJune 19 (Bcf)W/W Chgvs 5yr Avg
East558+26-8
Midwest672+34+19
Mountain227+1+41
Pacific312+3+63
South Central1,066+13-1
Total US2,835+76+112
βœ… Regional data confirmed via EIA API v2 for week ending June 19, 2026. Total: 2,835 Bcf (East 558 + Midwest 672 + Mountain 227 + Pacific 312 + South Central 1,066). 5-yr avgs by ISO wk 25 (2021–2025).
Production & LNG Flow
Dry Gas Production (est.)~119 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (2026 avg, STEO Jun)~17.0 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Mexico6.35 Bcf/d
Pipeline Exports to Canada3.88 Bcf/d
EIA N9132MX2 / N9132CN2 Β· Mar 2026
Fcst Incremental LNG 20260.00 Bcf/d
Fcst Incremental LNG 2027+1.40 Bcf/d
STEO NGEXPUS_LNG Β· 2026 avg 17.21, 2027 avg 18.61 Bcf/d
This month: No newer Canadian monthly production/trade data has been published since last week β€” StatsCan's crude oil and equivalent production figure remains at ~5.46 mb/d (March 2026, 26.9 million mΒ³, +0.2% YoY) and crude exports remain at a record ~4.56 mb/d (22.5 million mΒ³, +4.2% YoY) β€” the highest level since the series began in 2016, supported by Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline capacity. The April 2026 international merchandise trade release (June 9) remains the latest available; no May 2026 release has posted yet. Baker Hughes has now published its week ending June 26, 2026 rig count: Canada's count jumped to 197 rigs (137 oil, 58 gas, 2 misc), up 11 from the prior week and now up 57 rigs from year-ago levels (140), continuing the strong seasonal recovery.
πŸ“‹ Data: Statistics Canada (production/exports: March 2026, latest available; merchandise trade value release: April 2026, released June 9, 2026) Β· Baker Hughes Rig Count (Week Ending June 26, 2026, released June 26, 2026) Β· CAPP industry overview Β· CER Canada Energy Future 2026. Canadian production/export volume data is monthly β€” periods clearly labeled. Rig count updated this run; no new Canadian monthly production/trade data since last week.
Crude Oil Production
~5.46
β–² +0.2% YoY
mb/d | Mar 2026 (monthly, StatsCan)
Crude Exports
~4.56
β–² Record high (+4.2% YoY)
mb/d | Mar 2026 | New series record
Rig Count (Oil)
137
β–² +8 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 26, 2026
Rig Count (Gas)
58
β–² +2 w/w
rigs | Week Ending June 26, 2026
LNG Overseas Exports
1.76 Bcf/d
β–² Record high since LNG Canada opened
Mar 2026 Β· 57.6M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
Gas Exports to US
8.63 Bcf/d
β–Ό -10.8% YoY
Mar 2026 Β· 282.1M GJ Β· StatsCan Jun 1, 2026
AECO Fwd Basis
-$2.14
β–Ό -$0.17 w/w
Jul-26 fwd vs HH Β· 0.7044 CAD/USD Β· gasalberta.com
Canadian Crude Oil Metrics Most recent available β€” March 2026 (StatsCan, released Jun 1, 2026)
Crude Oil MetricValuePeriodNotes
Total Production (crude & equiv.)~5.46 mb/dMar 202626.9 mln mΒ³/mo (StatsCan); +0.2% YoY
Crude Oil Exports~4.56 mb/dMar 202622.5 mln mΒ³; record high since 2016; +4.2% YoY
Net Exports (prod. – dom. use est.)~4.2 mb/dMar 2026Estimate
Oil Sands Production~3.5+ mb/d2026 est.Synthetic crude -6.4% due to AB gas pipeline maintenance; bitumen +2.1%
2026 Production Forecast~5.5 mb/dFull YrCER Current Measures scenario
2030 Production Target5.8 mb/dForecastCER 2026 Energy Future report
Annual Industry Revenue$165.4B2026 est.CAPP estimate; down YoY on weaker prices
Natural Gas & LNGValueNotes
Marketable Gas Production~17–18 Bcf/d2025–26 CER estimate
LNG Canada Phase 1~1.8 Bcf/dOperational since Jul 2025, Kitimat BC
LNG Export DestinationAsia-PacificJapan, Korea, China primary
Storage (Western Canada)~602 BcfEnd-Mar 2026; 22% above 5-yr avg (CER)
AECO Hub Price (est.)~1.52 CAD/GJJul-26 fwd (~$1.13 USD/MMBtu) Β· gasalberta.com
AER / CER Outlook (2026)
Oil Sands GrowthContinues to 2050On track
Oil Sands by 20504.1 mb/dCER Current Measures
Global Rank – Crude4th largestWorld producer
Global Rank – Nat Gas5th largestWorld producer
Trans Mountain ExpansionOperationalActive
Western Canada Natural Gas Storage Billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Seasonal comparison 2024–2026
Western Canada Natural Gas Inventories vs Historical Range
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Western Canada holds ~88% of national gas storage. 2026 ends Mar at ~602 Bcf (national: 684 Bcf, 22% above 5-yr avg). Nov 2025 national peak: 1,098 Bcf (record). Shaded band = 5-yr seasonal range (2020–2024). See: CER Market Snapshot, May 2026.
This week: North America saw a net +21 rigs week-over-week for the week ending June 26, with the US adding 10 rigs to 573 and Canada adding 11 to 197, for a combined count of 770. In the US, oil rigs added 7 w/w to 440 and gas rigs added 3 to 125, while the Gulf of Mexico added 1 to 8. Canada's oil rigs added 8 w/w to 137 and gas rigs added 2 to 58, continuing the strong seasonal recovery β€” Canada is now up 57 rigs from year-ago levels. The Permian Basin's 258 active rigs remains the dominant US basin, up 2 w/w. US production at 13.8 mb/d remains near record highs alongside the rebound in drilling activity.
πŸ“‹ Data: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count β€” Week Ending June 26, 2026 (Released June 26, 2026)
US Total Rigs
573
β–² +10 w/w
vs prior week 563
US Oil Rigs
440
β–² +7 w/w
Primary oil-directed
US Gas Rigs
125
β–² +3 w/w
Natural gas-directed
Gulf of Mexico
8
β–² +1 w/w
Offshore rigs
Canada Total
197
β–² +11 w/w
Strong seasonal recovery
Canada Oil Rigs
137
β–² +8 w/w
Oil-directed
Canada Gas Rigs
58
β–² +2 w/w
Gas-directed
NA Total
770
β–² +21 w/w
North America combined
Rig Count Detail & Breakdown
CategoryCountW/W ChgYoY Chg
United States
  Oil Rigs440+7432
  Gas Rigs125+3109
  Gulf of Mexico8+110
  Geothermal806
Major Basins (US)
  Permian258+2270
  Haynesville55036
  Eagle Ford44041
  Williston28031
  US Total573+10547
Canada
  Oil Rigs137+894
  Gas Rigs58+246
  Canada Total197+11140
North America Total770+21687
Rig Count by Category β€” Week Ending June 26, 2026
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count. Weekly release every Friday.
This week: CFTC's June 23, 2026 Disaggregated COT report shows a pullback in speculative length after last week's build. NYMEX WTI Physical managed money longs fell to 209,683 (-10,490 w/w) while shorts rose to 126,811 (+2,866 w/w), trimming the net long to +82,872 contracts (from +96,228, -13,356). ICE Europe WTI improved further to -18,387 contracts net short (+5,279 w/w). Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long eased to +64,485 contracts, down from +72,562 the prior week (-8,077). ICE Brent Crude β€” the genuine global Brent benchmark, sourced directly from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report rather than CFTC (which doesn't cover it) β€” showed a larger pullback: managed money longs fell to 303,820 (-25,595 w/w) while shorts rose to 165,182 (+10,574 w/w), reducing the net long to +138,638 contracts (from +174,807, -36,169). Including Brent, total net long exposure across WTI and Brent fell to approximately +203.1k contracts, down from +247.4k the prior week β€” a broad-based reduction in bullish speculative positioning. The NYMEX WTI Long/Short ratio eased to 1.65x from 1.78x.
πŸ“‹ Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders β€” Managed Money Category (WTI contracts). Brent managed money positions sourced separately from ICE Futures Europe's own COTR, since CFTC does not cover the UK/FCA-regulated ICE Brent Crude contract. All positions confirmed as of June 23, 2026 (released June 26, 2026). No carried-forward values this week. Note: both CFTC and ICE report Tuesday positions, released the following Friday.
WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) Net
+64.5k
contracts (net long)
Down from +72.6k β€” as of Jun 23, 2026
Brent Net Long (ICE Brent Crude)
+138.6k
contracts (net long)
Down from +174.8k β€” as of Jun 23, 2026
Combined WTI + Brent
+203.1k
contracts
Down from +247.4k β€” all contracts confirmed
WTI NYMEX Long / Short Ratio
1.65x
longs vs shorts
L 210k vs S 127k (Jun 23, 2026)
Market Signal
πŸ“‰ Net Long β€” Paring Back
NYMEX WTI sheds length; ICE Europe short-covering continues
Combined net long -44.2k w/w, broad-based reduction
Managed Money Positioning β€” WTI & Brent Thousands of contracts | Jan 2021 – Jun 2026
Brent Short WTI Short Brent Long WTI Long Net
Values in thousands of contracts. 100% real weekly data, Jan 2021 – Jun 2026: WTI from CFTC Disaggregated COT (WTI Physical, NYMEX; managed money). Brent from ICE Futures Europe's own Commitments of Traders Report (ICE Brent Crude Futures, FutOnly; managed money) β€” the genuine global Brent benchmark, which CFTC does not cover since it is UK/FCA-regulated. Confirmed as of Jun 23, 2026: WTI Long 209.7k, Short 126.8k, Net +82.9k. Brent Long 303.8k, Short 165.2k, Net +138.6k. Sources: CFTC Disaggregated COT (publicreporting.cftc.gov) and ICE COT Report (ice.com/report/122).
⚠️ Methodology note: WTI and Brent aren't measured on a fully symmetric basis here. "WTI" is CFTC's single largest WTI contract (Physical, NYMEX) β€” the smaller ICE Europe WTI contract (OI ~803k) is tracked separately in the table below and excluded from this chart and from the "Combined WTI + Brent" figures. "Brent" is ICE's one primary Brent Crude contract (OI ~2.69M), which has no comparably-sized secondary contract to exclude. So the Brent leg captures effectively all Brent managed-money positioning, while the WTI leg captures only its larger of two tracked contracts β€” a partial explanation (alongside real market dynamics) for why Brent now appears as the larger and more volatile of the two bands.
Detailed Positions Table As of Jun 23, 2026 (All Contracts Confirmed) | CFTC Disaggregated COT
Contract / Exchange MM Longs MM Shorts Net Position W/W Longs W/W Shorts W/W Net Ξ” Open Interest Signal
WTI Physical (NYMEX) 209,683 126,811 +82,872 -10,490 +2,866 -13,356 1,911,877 Net Long
WTI Financial (ICE Europe) 3,786 22,173 -18,387 +328 -4,951 +5,279 803,067 Bearish
ICE Brent Crude (ICE Futures Europe) 303,820 165,182 +138,638 -25,595 +10,574 -36,169 2,689,409 Net Long
Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) 213,469 148,984 +64,485 β€” β€” -8,077 β€” Net Long
Combined WTI + Brent (All Benchmarks) 517,289 314,166 +203,123 β€” β€” -44,246 β€” Net Long
Positioning Context & Interpretation

Overall Stance: Net Long β€” Paring Back (All Contracts Confirmed)

As of June 23, 2026, NYMEX WTI Physical managed money longs fell to 209,683 (-10,490 w/w) while shorts rose to 126,811 (+2,866 w/w), trimming the net long to +82,872 contracts (from +96,228), a decline of -13,356. This represents approximately 11.0% of total open interest on the long side vs. 6.6% on the short side. Total open interest in WTI Physical also fell sharply, down 95,832 contracts to 1,911,877 β€” a notable liquidation event consistent with pre-quarter-end and futures-roll positioning rather than a fresh directional signal alone.

ICE Europe WTI improved further to net short -18,387 contracts (from -23,666, a change of +5,279) as shorts continued covering to 22,173 (-4,951 w/w) while longs ticked up to 3,786 (+328 w/w). Combined WTI (NYMEX + ICE Europe) net long eased to +64,485 contracts, down from +72,562 the prior week β€” a decline of -8,077, the largest weekly pullback in several weeks.

ICE Brent Crude β€” the true global Brent benchmark, reported by ICE Futures Europe rather than CFTC (which only covers US-regulated markets) β€” saw a much larger pullback: managed money net long fell to +138,638 contracts (-36,169 w/w), as longs dropped to 303,820 (-25,595) while shorts rose to 165,182 (+10,574). This dwarfs the WTI move in absolute terms and represents the largest weekly Brent liquidation in several months. Including Brent, combined net long exposure across WTI and Brent fell to approximately +203.1k contracts, down from +247.4k the prior week (-44,246) β€” roughly 11.3% of Brent's 2.69M-contract open interest on the long side vs. 6.1% on the short side.

Context: The pullback in combined net long positioning comes even as US commercial crude inventories continued to draw (-3.8 mb to 408.4 mb, now 6.3% below the 5-yr seasonal average), though at a more moderate pace than the prior week's -6.1 mb draw, and as Cushing stocks rebuilt slightly (+0.7 mb to 19.7 mb) off the multi-year low. The WTI prompt spread (CLQ26–CLU26) narrowed further to just +$0.06/bbl backwardation β€” essentially flat β€” suggesting the front of the curve is no longer signaling acute near-term tightness. With managed money net long easing across NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent even as ICE Europe WTI short-covering continues, positioning reads as profit-taking / de-risking into quarter-end rather than a reversal of the underlying bullish tilt. Across the full 2021-2026 history, combined WTI+Brent managed-money net long has ranged from roughly +14k (Oct 2025 trough) to +724k (Feb 2021 peak); at +203.1k, current positioning sits in the lower-middle of that range β€” comfortably above the 2025 lows but well below the elevated levels seen through 2021-2024.